National Fuel Gas Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| NFG Stock | USD 54.44 1.50 2.83% |
National | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
National Fuel Gas Company chance of financial distress Analysis
National Fuel's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current National Fuel Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 24% |
Most of National Fuel's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, National Fuel Gas is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of National Fuel probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting National Fuel odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of National Fuel Gas financial health.
Is National Fuel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 4.77 | Revenue Per Share 22.218 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
National Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for National Fuel is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of National Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since National Fuel's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of National Fuel's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of National Fuel's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, National Fuel Gas has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 24.0%. This is 50.23% lower than that of the Gas Utilities sector and 44.33% lower than that of the Utilities industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 39.74% higher than that of the company.
National Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses National Fuel's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of National Fuel could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Fuel by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.National Fuel is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
National Fuel Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.0178) | 0.0487 | 0.0717 | 0.0576 | 0.0662 | 0.0404 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.41 | 0.39 | 0.45 | 0.55 | |
| Net Debt | 2.6B | 2.8B | 2.6B | 2.6B | 3.0B | 1.6B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 459.6M | 1.2B | 1.9B | 806.3M | 927.3M | 636.7M | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 4.5B | 4.4B | 3.9B | 4.5B | 5.2B | 2.9B | |
| Total Assets | 7.0B | 7.5B | 7.9B | 8.3B | 9.5B | 5.2B | |
| Total Current Assets | 314.2M | 522.4M | 761.1M | 414.4M | 476.6M | 476.8M | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 740.8M | 791.6M | 812.5M | 1.2B | 1.4B | 1.5B |
National Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | 0.15 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.054 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.22 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.40 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 7.54 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 92.13 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 1.23 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 75.56 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 2.67 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 11.98 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.54 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 2.40 X | ||||
| Revenue | 2.17 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 1.26 B | ||||
| EBITDA | 1.18 B | ||||
| Net Income | 476.87 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 55.45 M | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 4.73 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 2.67 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 1.52 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 0.53 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 34.46 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 1.24 B | ||||
| Short Ratio | 5.48 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 4.77 X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 2.05 X | ||||
| Target Price | 64.0 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 2.24 K | ||||
| Beta | 0.65 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 4.89 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 8.28 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 1.89 B | ||||
| Working Capital | (391.88 M) | ||||
| Current Asset | 306.07 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 303.74 M | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.04 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 3.40 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 8.28 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 1.96 |
About National Fuel Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze National Fuel Gas's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of National Fuel using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Fuel Gas based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
National Fuel Investors Sentiment
The influence of National Fuel's investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in National. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to National Fuel's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in National. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding National can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around National Fuel Gas. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
National Fuel's market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for National Fuel's and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average National Fuel's news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on National Fuel.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards National Fuel in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, National Fuel's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from National Fuel options trading.
Building efficient market-beating portfolios requires time, education, and a lot of computing power!
The Portfolio Architect is an AI-driven system that provides multiple benefits to our users by leveraging cutting-edge machine learning algorithms, statistical analysis, and predictive modeling to automate the process of asset selection and portfolio construction, saving time and reducing human error for individual and institutional investors.
Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out National Fuel Piotroski F Score and National Fuel Altman Z Score analysis. Note that the National Fuel Gas information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other National Fuel's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Rebalancing module to analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets.
Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis
When running National Fuel's price analysis, check to measure National Fuel's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Fuel is operating at the current time. Most of National Fuel's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Fuel's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Fuel's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Fuel to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Piotroski F Score Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals | |
| Sign In To Macroaxis Sign in to explore Macroaxis' wealth optimization platform and fintech modules | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Top Crypto Exchanges Search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Insider Screener Find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance | |
| Instant Ratings Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Anywhere Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device | |
| Stock Screener Find equities using a custom stock filter or screen asymmetry in trading patterns, price, volume, or investment outlook. | |
| Latest Portfolios Quick portfolio dashboard that showcases your latest portfolios |
Is National Fuel's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Fuel. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Fuel listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.22) | Dividend Share 1.96 | Earnings Share 4.77 | Revenue Per Share 22.218 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.20) |
The market value of National Fuel Gas is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Fuel's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Fuel's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Fuel's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Fuel's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Fuel's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Fuel is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Fuel's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.