Southwest Airlines Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| LUV Stock | USD 29.73 0.35 1.19% |
Southwest | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
Southwest Airlines Company odds of financial turmoil Analysis
Southwest Airlines' Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current Southwest Airlines Probability Of Bankruptcy | Less than 8% |
Most of Southwest Airlines' fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, Southwest Airlines is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of Southwest Airlines probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting Southwest Airlines odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of Southwest Airlines financial health.
Is Southwest Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southwest Airlines. If investors know Southwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southwest Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 0.76 | Revenue Per Share 43.85 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.105 |
The market value of Southwest Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southwest Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southwest Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southwest Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southwest Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southwest Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southwest Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southwest Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Southwest Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for Southwest Airlines is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of Southwest Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since Southwest Airlines' main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of Southwest Airlines' historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of Southwest Airlines' interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, Southwest Airlines has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 8.0%. This is 81.21% lower than that of the Passenger Airlines sector and 81.27% lower than that of the Industrials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 79.91% higher than that of the company.
Southwest Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses Southwest Airlines' direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of Southwest Airlines could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Southwest Airlines by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.Southwest Airlines is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
Southwest Airlines Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | 0.0888 | (0.0889) | 0.0269 | 0.0152 | 0.0127 | 0.0121 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.28 | 0.27 | (0.21) | 0.26 | 0.16 | 0.15 | |
| Net Debt | 1.4B | 1.1B | (199M) | (61M) | (88M) | (83.6M) | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 9.0B | 7.5B | 9.2B | 10.4B | 12.3B | 12.9B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 7.1B | 18.2B | 16.7B | 14.3B | 13.7B | 14.4B | |
| Total Assets | 25.9B | 34.6B | 36.3B | 35.4B | 36.5B | 38.3B | |
| Total Current Assets | 6.0B | 15.2B | 18.0B | 14.8B | 14.0B | 14.7B | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | 4.0B | (1.1B) | 2.3B | 3.8B | 3.2B | 1.7B |
Southwest Airlines ESG Sustainability
Some studies have found that companies with high sustainability scores are getting higher valuations than competitors with lower social-engagement activities. While most ESG disclosures are voluntary and do not directly affect the long term financial condition, Southwest Airlines' sustainability indicators can be used to identify proper investment strategies using environmental, social, and governance scores that are crucial to Southwest Airlines' managers, analysts, and investors.Environment Score | Governance Score | Social Score |
Southwest Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | 0.0439 | ||||
| Return On Asset | 0.0153 | ||||
| Profit Margin | 0.02 % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.04 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 15.46 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 598.25 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.33 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 81.58 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 16.1 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 29.96 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 1.57 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 0.63 X | ||||
| Revenue | 26.09 B | ||||
| Gross Profit | 5.98 B | ||||
| EBITDA | 2.33 B | ||||
| Net Income | 465 M | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 9.49 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 23.03 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 9.2 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 0.93 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 1.58 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 17.63 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 3.16 B | ||||
| Short Ratio | 1.82 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | 0.76 X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | 0.56 X | ||||
| Target Price | 30.5 | ||||
| Number Of Employees | 74.81 K | ||||
| Beta | 1.14 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 17.79 B | ||||
| Total Asset | 36.49 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | 16.3 B | ||||
| Working Capital | 1.7 B | ||||
| Current Asset | 2.23 B | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 1.43 B | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.02 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 1.03 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 36.49 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 0.72 |
About Southwest Airlines Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze Southwest Airlines's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of Southwest Airlines using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of Southwest Airlines based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Southwest Airlines Investors Sentiment
The influence of Southwest Airlines' investor sentiment on the probability of its price appreciation or decline could be a good factor in your decision-making process regarding taking a position in Southwest. The overall investor sentiment generally increases the direction of a stock movement in a one-year investment horizon. However, the impact of investor sentiment on the entire stock market does not have solid backing from leading economists and market statisticians.
Investor biases related to Southwest Airlines' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Southwest. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Southwest can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Southwest Airlines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Southwest Airlines' market sentiment shows the aggregated news analyzed to detect positive and negative mentions from the text and comments. The data is normalized to provide daily scores for Southwest Airlines' and other traded tickers. The bigger the bubble, the more accurate is the estimated score. Higher bars for a given day show more participation in the average Southwest Airlines' news discussions. The higher the estimated score, the more favorable is the investor's outlook on Southwest Airlines.
Southwest Airlines Implied Volatility | 83.57 |
Southwest Airlines' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Southwest Airlines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Southwest Airlines' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Southwest Airlines stock will not fluctuate a lot when Southwest Airlines' options are near their expiration.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Southwest Airlines in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Southwest Airlines' short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Southwest Airlines options trading.
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Try AI Portfolio ArchitectCheck out Southwest Airlines Piotroski F Score and Southwest Airlines Altman Z Score analysis. For more information on how to buy Southwest Stock please use our How to Invest in Southwest Airlines guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for Southwest Stock analysis
When running Southwest Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Southwest Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwest Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Southwest Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwest Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwest Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwest Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Southwest Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southwest Airlines. If investors know Southwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southwest Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.30) | Dividend Share 0.72 | Earnings Share 0.76 | Revenue Per Share 43.85 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.105 |
The market value of Southwest Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southwest Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southwest Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southwest Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southwest Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southwest Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southwest Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southwest Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.