Armour Residential Reit Stock Probability Of Bankruptcy
| ARR Stock | USD 18.52 0.31 1.70% |
ARMOUR | Probability Of Bankruptcy |
ARMOUR Residential REIT Company probability of distress Analysis
ARMOUR Residential's Probability Of Bankruptcy is a relative measure of the likelihood of financial distress. For stocks, the Probability Of Bankruptcy is the normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs, it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict the probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within the next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100, indicating the firm's actual probability it will be financially distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
More About Probability Of Bankruptcy | All Equity Analysis
Probability Of Bankruptcy | = | Normalized | | Z-Score |
Current ARMOUR Residential Probability Of Bankruptcy | Over 54% |
Most of ARMOUR Residential's fundamental indicators, such as Probability Of Bankruptcy, are part of a valuation analysis module that helps investors searching for stocks that are currently trading at higher or lower prices than their real value. If the real value is higher than the market price, ARMOUR Residential REIT is considered to be undervalued, and we provide a buy recommendation. Otherwise, we render a sell signal.
Our calculation of ARMOUR Residential probability of bankruptcy is based on Altman Z-Score and Piotroski F-Score, but not limited to these measures. To be applied to a broader range of industries and markets, we use several other techniques to enhance the accuracy of predicting ARMOUR Residential odds of financial distress. These include financial statement analysis, different types of price predictions, earning estimates, analysis consensus, and basic intrinsic valuation. Please use the options below to get a better understanding of different measures that drive the calculation of ARMOUR Residential REIT financial health.
Is ARMOUR Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ARMOUR Residential. If investors know ARMOUR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ARMOUR Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.571 | Dividend Share 4.32 | Earnings Share (1.86) | Revenue Per Share 0.689 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.261 |
The market value of ARMOUR Residential REIT is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARMOUR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARMOUR Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARMOUR Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARMOUR Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARMOUR Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARMOUR Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARMOUR Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARMOUR Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
ARMOUR Probability Of Bankruptcy Driver Correlations
Understanding the fundamental principles of building solid financial models for ARMOUR Residential is extremely important. It helps to project a fair market value of ARMOUR Stock properly, considering its historical fundamentals such as Probability Of Bankruptcy. Since ARMOUR Residential's main accounts across its financial reports are all linked and dependent on each other, it is essential to analyze all possible correlations between related accounts. However, instead of reviewing all of ARMOUR Residential's historical financial statements, investors can examine the correlated drivers to determine its overall health. This can be effectively done using a conventional correlation matrix of ARMOUR Residential's interrelated accounts and indicators.
Click cells to compare fundamentals
The Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with the actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12, or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty meeting its current financial obligations towards its creditors or delivering on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions daily from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns, including short-term and long-term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenue patterns, R&D expenses, and commitments, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
| Competition |
Based on the latest financial disclosure, ARMOUR Residential REIT has a Probability Of Bankruptcy of 54%. This is 26.26% higher than that of the Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) sector and significantly higher than that of the Financials industry. The probability of bankruptcy for all United States stocks is 35.58% lower than that of the firm.
ARMOUR Probability Of Bankruptcy Peer Comparison
Stock peer comparison is one of the most widely used and accepted methods of equity analyses. It analyses ARMOUR Residential's direct or indirect competition against its Probability Of Bankruptcy to detect undervalued stocks with similar characteristics or determine the stocks which would be a good addition to a portfolio. Peer analysis of ARMOUR Residential could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ARMOUR Residential by comparing valuation metrics of similar companies.ARMOUR Residential is currently under evaluation in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
ARMOUR Residential Main Bankruptcy Drivers
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | ||
| Return On Assets | (0.02) | (0.0407) | 7.37E-4 | (0.0256) | (0.005502) | (0.005777) | |
| Asset Turnover | (0.0163) | (0.00402) | 0.003633 | (0.0239) | 0.0364 | 0.0382 | |
| Gross Profit Margin | 0.79 | 1.4 | (0.17) | 2.03 | 0.93 | 0.98 | |
| Net Debt | 11.2B | 4.4B | 3.6B | 6.4B | 9.4B | 6.0B | |
| Total Current Liabilities | 35.5M | 4.2M | 4M | 6.4M | 9.6B | 10.1B | |
| Non Current Liabilities Total | 481.2M | 50.1M | 185.6M | 8.3B | 1.4B | 1.4B | |
| Total Assets | 13.3B | 5.5B | 5.3B | 9.4B | 12.3B | 9.4B | |
| Total Current Assets | 12.2B | 5.4B | 348M | 116.1M | (1.0) | (0.95) | |
| Total Cash From Operating Activities | (40.7M) | (257.8M) | 11.7M | 124.1M | 132.8M | 139.5M |
ARMOUR Fundamentals
| Return On Equity | -0.0179 | ||||
| Return On Asset | -0.0017 | ||||
| Profit Margin | (0.69) % | ||||
| Operating Margin | 0.42 % | ||||
| Current Valuation | 8.38 B | ||||
| Shares Outstanding | 48.75 M | ||||
| Shares Owned By Insiders | 0.59 % | ||||
| Shares Owned By Institutions | 57.98 % | ||||
| Number Of Shares Shorted | 4.46 M | ||||
| Price To Earning | 1.57 X | ||||
| Price To Book | 0.71 X | ||||
| Price To Sales | 15.43 X | ||||
| Revenue | 449.67 M | ||||
| Gross Profit | (192.1 M) | ||||
| EBITDA | 457.87 M | ||||
| Net Income | (67.92 M) | ||||
| Cash And Equivalents | 9.43 B | ||||
| Cash Per Share | 71.36 X | ||||
| Total Debt | 9.65 B | ||||
| Debt To Equity | 8.74 % | ||||
| Current Ratio | 1.15 X | ||||
| Book Value Per Share | 25.58 X | ||||
| Cash Flow From Operations | 132.82 M | ||||
| Short Ratio | 3.85 X | ||||
| Earnings Per Share | (1.86) X | ||||
| Price To Earnings To Growth | (1.31) X | ||||
| Target Price | 19.0 | ||||
| Beta | 1.49 | ||||
| Market Capitalization | 902.88 M | ||||
| Total Asset | 12.34 B | ||||
| Retained Earnings | (3.05 B) | ||||
| Working Capital | (11.01 B) | ||||
| Current Asset | 589.26 M | ||||
| Current Liabilities | 11.6 B | ||||
| Annual Yield | 0.16 % | ||||
| Five Year Return | 13.31 % | ||||
| Net Asset | 12.34 B | ||||
| Last Dividend Paid | 4.32 |
About ARMOUR Residential Fundamental Analysis
The Macroaxis Fundamental Analysis modules help investors analyze ARMOUR Residential REIT's financials across various querterly and yearly statements, indicators and fundamental ratios. We help investors to determine the real value of ARMOUR Residential using virtually all public information available. We use both quantitative as well as qualitative analysis to arrive at the intrinsic value of ARMOUR Residential REIT based on its fundamental data. In general, a quantitative approach, as applied to this company, focuses on analyzing financial statements comparatively, whereas a qaualitative method uses data that is important to a company's growth but cannot be measured and presented in a numerical way.
Please read more on our fundamental analysis page.
Pair Trading with ARMOUR Residential
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if ARMOUR Residential position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in ARMOUR Residential will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to ARMOUR Residential could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace ARMOUR Residential when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back ARMOUR Residential - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling ARMOUR Residential REIT to buy it.
The correlation of ARMOUR Residential is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as ARMOUR Residential moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if ARMOUR Residential REIT moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for ARMOUR Residential can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out ARMOUR Residential Piotroski F Score and ARMOUR Residential Altman Z Score analysis. You can also try the Theme Ratings module to determine theme ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis theme ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance.
Complementary Tools for ARMOUR Stock analysis
When running ARMOUR Residential's price analysis, check to measure ARMOUR Residential's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ARMOUR Residential is operating at the current time. Most of ARMOUR Residential's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ARMOUR Residential's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ARMOUR Residential's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ARMOUR Residential to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is ARMOUR Residential's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of ARMOUR Residential. If investors know ARMOUR will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about ARMOUR Residential listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.571 | Dividend Share 4.32 | Earnings Share (1.86) | Revenue Per Share 0.689 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.261 |
The market value of ARMOUR Residential REIT is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of ARMOUR that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of ARMOUR Residential's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is ARMOUR Residential's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because ARMOUR Residential's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect ARMOUR Residential's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between ARMOUR Residential's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if ARMOUR Residential is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, ARMOUR Residential's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.