Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy

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    Probability Of Bankruptcy Analysis

    For stocks, Probability Of Bankruptcy is normalized value of Z-Score. For funds and ETFs it is derived from a multi-factor model developed by Macroaxis. The score is used to predict probability of a firm or a fund experiencing financial distress within next 24 months. Unlike Z-Score, Probability Of Bankruptcy is the value between 0 and 100 indicating the actual probability the firm will be distressed in the next 2 fiscal years.
    Alcoa 
    Probability Of Bankruptcy 
     = 
    Normalized 
     
    Z-Score 
     = 
    23 %

    Distress Driver Correlations

    About Probability Of Bankruptcy

    Probability of Bankruptcy SHOULD NOT be confused with actual chance of a company to file for chapter 7, 11, 12 or 13 bankruptcy protection. Macroaxis simply defines Financial Distress as an operational condition where a company is having difficulty to meet its current financial obligations towards its creditors or to deliver on the expectations of its investors. Macroaxis derives these conditions on a daily bases from both public financial statements as well as analysis of stock prices reacting to market conditions or economic downturns including short term and long term historical volatility. Other factors taken into account include analysis of liquidity, revenues patterns, RND expenses, as well as public headlines and social sentiment.
    Compare to competition

    Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Assessment

      Of Bankruptcy 
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    Based on latest financial disclosure Alcoa Inc has Probability Of Bankruptcy of 23.0%. This is 49.56% lower than that of the Basic Materials sector, and 37.6% lower than that of Aluminum industry, The Probability Of Bankruptcy for all stocks is 40.28% higher than the company.
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    Filter other Stocks by Probability Of Bankruptcy

    Probability Of Bankruptcy Input Range 
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    Found 8 equities by Probability Of Bankruptcy
    ACH NYQAluminum Corporation Of China Limited
    42 %
    AA NYQAlcoa Inc
    23 %
    KALU NMSKaiser Aluminum Corporation
    37 %
    CENX NMSCentury Aluminum Co
    27 %
    RRP ASXRealm Resources Limited
    2 %
    RS NYQReliance Steel Aluminum Co
    35 %
    SCCO NYQSouthern Copper Corp
    20 %
    ATI NYQAllegheny Technologies Inc
    52 %
    You can backtest this sub-set of assets as a synthetic portfolio or check its risk adjusted returns  
    Peer Comparison
    Alcoa Probability Of Bankruptcy Comparison
      Probability Of Bankruptcy 
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    Alcoa is rated below average in probability of bankruptcy category among related companies.
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    Return On Equity(2.74) %
    Return On Asset2.02 %
    Profit Margin(11.77) %
    Operating Margin4.31 %
    Current Valuation7.33 B
    Shares Outstanding182.87 M
    Shares Owned by Insiders0.13 %
    Shares Owned by Institutions62.50 %
    Number of Shares Shorted5.01 M
    Price to Earning82.18 times
    Price to Book0.87 times
    Price to Sales0.65 times
    Revenue9.23 B
    Gross Profit4.46 B
    EBITDA1.11 B
    Net Income(1.09 B)
    Cash and Equivalents241 M
    Cash per Share1.32 times
    Total Debt1.48 B
    Debt to Equity0.16 times
    Current Ratio1.64 times
    Book Value Per Share38.17 times
    Cash Flow from Operations(497 M)
    Short Ratio1.10 times
    One Year High33.5
    One Year Low20.0
    Earnings Per Share(5.94) times
    Price to Earnings To Growth(0.38) times
    Number of Employees16 K
    Beta0.69
    Market Capitalization6.04 B
    Total Asset37.45 B
    Retained Earnings8.94 B
    Working Capital3.87 B
    Current Asset9.37 B
    Current Liabilities5.5 B
    Z Score2.4