General American Investors Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 41.26

XGAMX Fund  USD 56.91  0.62  1.10%   
General American's future price is the expected price of General American instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of General American Investors performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out General American Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, General American Correlation, General American Hype Analysis, General American Volatility, General American History as well as General American Performance.
  
Please specify General American's target price for which you would like General American odds to be computed.

General American Target Price Odds to finish below 41.26

The tendency of General Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 41.26  or more in 90 days
 56.91 90 days 41.26 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of General American to drop to $ 41.26  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This General American Investors probability density function shows the probability of General Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of General American Inv price to stay between $ 41.26  and its current price of $56.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon General American has a beta of 0.0208. This entails as returns on the market go up, General American average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding General American Investors will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally General American Investors has an alpha of 0.1309, implying that it can generate a 0.13 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   General American Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for General American

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as General American Inv. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of General American's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
56.3156.9157.51
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
51.2261.1961.79
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
56.6357.2457.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
53.6455.2956.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as General American. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against General American's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, General American's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in General American Inv.

General American Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. General American is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the General American's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold General American Investors, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of General American within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.13
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.02
σ
Overall volatility
1.51
Ir
Information ratio 0.01

General American Technical Analysis

General American's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. General Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of General American Investors. In general, you should focus on analyzing General Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

General American Predictive Forecast Models

General American's time-series forecasting models is one of many General American's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary General American's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards General American in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, General American's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from General American options trading.

Complementary Tools for General Mutual Fund analysis

When running General American's price analysis, check to measure General American's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy General American is operating at the current time. Most of General American's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of General American's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move General American's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of General American to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
USA ETFs
Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA
Piotroski F Score
Get Piotroski F Score based on the binary analysis strategy of nine different fundamentals
Technical Analysis
Check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data
Odds Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Analyst Advice
Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories
Aroon Oscillator
Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios
Pattern Recognition
Use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges
Portfolio Anywhere
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Portfolio Holdings
Check your current holdings and cash postion to detemine if your portfolio needs rebalancing
Please note, there is a significant difference between General American's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if General American is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, General American's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.