Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 11.04

VMLUX Fund  USD 10.81  0.01  0.09%   
Vanguard Limited's future price is the expected price of Vanguard Limited instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Vanguard Limited Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Limited Correlation, Vanguard Limited Hype Analysis, Vanguard Limited Volatility, Vanguard Limited History as well as Vanguard Limited Performance.
  
Please specify Vanguard Limited's target price for which you would like Vanguard Limited odds to be computed.

Vanguard Limited Target Price Odds to finish below 11.04

The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay under $ 11.04  after 90 days
 10.81 90 days 11.04 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Limited to stay under $ 11.04  after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Limited-term price to stay between its current price of $ 10.81  and $ 11.04  at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.24 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard Limited has a beta of 0.0175. This entails as returns on the market go up, Vanguard Limited average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Vanguard Limited Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Vanguard Limited

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Limited-term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Limited's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
10.7310.8110.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6210.7011.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.7110.7910.88
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
10.8010.8310.85
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Vanguard Limited. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Vanguard Limited's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Vanguard Limited's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Vanguard Limited-term.

Vanguard Limited Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Limited is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Limited's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Limited within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.0079
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.02
σ
Overall volatility
0.03
Ir
Information ratio -1.56

Vanguard Limited Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Limited for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Limited-term can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vanguard Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund keeps about 96.6% of its net assets in bonds

Vanguard Limited Technical Analysis

Vanguard Limited's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Limited Term Tax Exempt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Vanguard Limited Predictive Forecast Models

Vanguard Limited's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Limited's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Limited's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Vanguard Limited-term

Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Limited for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Limited-term help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Vanguard Limited generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The fund keeps about 96.6% of its net assets in bonds

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When running Vanguard Limited's price analysis, check to measure Vanguard Limited's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Vanguard Limited is operating at the current time. Most of Vanguard Limited's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Vanguard Limited's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Vanguard Limited's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Vanguard Limited to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Limited's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Limited is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Limited's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.