Twitter Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 40.72

TWTR -- USA Stock  

USD 42.80  1.80  4.39%

Twitter probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Twitter performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Twitter time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Twitter odds to be computed. Also please take a look at Twitter Backtesting, Twitter Valuation, Twitter Correlation, Twitter Hype Analysis, Twitter Volatility, Twitter History as well as Twitter Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Twitter Target Price Odds to finish over 40.72

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 40.72  in 30 days
 42.80 30 days 40.72 
ABOUT 26.19%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Twitter to stay above $ 40.72  in 30 days from now is about 26.19% (This Twitter probability density function shows the probability of Twitter Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Twitter price to stay between $ 40.72  and its current price of $42.8 at the end of the 30-day period is about 18.75%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, the stock has beta coefficient of 1.2685 . This entails as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average . However, if the benchmark returns are expected to be negative, Twitter will likely underperform. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.4679 implying that it can potentially generate 0.4679% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Twitter Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.47
β
Beta against DOW=1.27
σ
Overall volatility
=2.58
Ir
Information ratio =0.18

Twitter Alerts and Suggestions

About 71.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors

TwitterPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out3.05%
Short Percent Of Float3.15%
Float Shares741.99M
Shares Short Prior Month22.51M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day11.53M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month13.42M
Date Short InterestJuly 31, 2019
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