Toronto Dominion Bank Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 58.79

TD Stock  USD 60.38  0.26  0.43%   
Toronto Dominion's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Toronto Dominion Bank. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Toronto Dominion based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Toronto Dominion Bank over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $60.0 is a CALL option contract on Toronto Dominion's common stock with a strick price of 60.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:42:41 for $1.15 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.1, and an ask price of $1.2. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 13.1. View All Toronto options

Closest to current price Toronto long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Toronto Dominion's future price is the expected price of Toronto Dominion instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Toronto Dominion Bank performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Toronto Dominion Backtesting, Toronto Dominion Valuation, Toronto Dominion Correlation, Toronto Dominion Hype Analysis, Toronto Dominion Volatility, Toronto Dominion History as well as Toronto Dominion Performance.
  
At present, Toronto Dominion's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to slightly decrease based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 1.94, whereas Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio is projected to grow to (1.85). Please specify Toronto Dominion's target price for which you would like Toronto Dominion odds to be computed.

Toronto Dominion Target Price Odds to finish over 58.79

The tendency of Toronto Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 58.79  in 90 days
 60.38 90 days 58.79 
about 88.67
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Toronto Dominion to stay above $ 58.79  in 90 days from now is about 88.67 (This Toronto Dominion Bank probability density function shows the probability of Toronto Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Toronto Dominion Bank price to stay between $ 58.79  and its current price of $60.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.92 .
Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.33 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Toronto Dominion will likely underperform. Additionally Toronto Dominion Bank has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Toronto Dominion Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Toronto Dominion

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Toronto Dominion Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Toronto Dominion's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
59.6060.6561.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
54.5863.1464.19
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
58.7459.7960.84
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
59.5265.4172.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Toronto Dominion. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Toronto Dominion's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Toronto Dominion's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Toronto Dominion Bank.

Toronto Dominion Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Toronto Dominion is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Toronto Dominion's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Toronto Dominion Bank, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Toronto Dominion within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.23
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.33
σ
Overall volatility
1.53
Ir
Information ratio -0.18

Toronto Dominion Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Toronto Dominion for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Toronto Dominion Bank can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Toronto Dominion generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Toronto Dominion Bank reports about 517.19 B in cash with (65.3 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 285.25.
Toronto Dominion has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 31st of January 2024 Toronto Dominion paid $ 0.752 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Toronto-Dominion Bank Now Covered by Analysts at Barclays - Defense World

Toronto Dominion Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Toronto Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Toronto Dominion's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Toronto Dominion's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.8 B
Cash And Short Term Investments138.2 B

Toronto Dominion Technical Analysis

Toronto Dominion's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Toronto Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Toronto Dominion Bank. In general, you should focus on analyzing Toronto Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Toronto Dominion Predictive Forecast Models

Toronto Dominion's time-series forecasting models is one of many Toronto Dominion's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Toronto Dominion's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Toronto Dominion Bank

Checking the ongoing alerts about Toronto Dominion for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Toronto Dominion Bank help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Toronto Dominion generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Toronto Dominion Bank reports about 517.19 B in cash with (65.3 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 285.25.
Toronto Dominion has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
Roughly 59.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 31st of January 2024 Toronto Dominion paid $ 0.752 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Toronto-Dominion Bank Now Covered by Analysts at Barclays - Defense World
When determining whether Toronto Dominion Bank is a strong investment it is important to analyze Toronto Dominion's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Toronto Dominion's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Toronto Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Toronto Dominion Backtesting, Toronto Dominion Valuation, Toronto Dominion Correlation, Toronto Dominion Hype Analysis, Toronto Dominion Volatility, Toronto Dominion History as well as Toronto Dominion Performance.
Note that the Toronto Dominion Bank information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Toronto Dominion's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.

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When running Toronto Dominion's price analysis, check to measure Toronto Dominion's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Toronto Dominion is operating at the current time. Most of Toronto Dominion's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Toronto Dominion's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Toronto Dominion's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Toronto Dominion to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Toronto Dominion's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Toronto Dominion. If investors know Toronto will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Toronto Dominion listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.888
Dividend Share
3.9
Earnings Share
4.66
Revenue Per Share
27.824
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.104
The market value of Toronto Dominion Bank is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Toronto that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Toronto Dominion's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Toronto Dominion's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Toronto Dominion's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Toronto Dominion's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Toronto Dominion's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Toronto Dominion is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Toronto Dominion's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.