Principal Financial Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 54.09

PFG Stock  USD 86.07  1.58  1.87%   
Principal Financial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Principal Financial Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Principal Financial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Principal Financial Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $85.0 is a CALL option contract on Principal Financial's common stock with a strick price of 85.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:57:17 for $2.12 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $2.1, and an ask price of $2.25. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 17.42. View All Principal options

Closest to current price Principal long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Principal Financial's future price is the expected price of Principal Financial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Principal Financial Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Principal Financial Backtesting, Principal Financial Valuation, Principal Financial Correlation, Principal Financial Hype Analysis, Principal Financial Volatility, Principal Financial History as well as Principal Financial Performance.
  
The current Price Earnings Ratio is estimated to decrease to 17.50. The current Price To Sales Ratio is estimated to decrease to 0.96. Please specify Principal Financial's target price for which you would like Principal Financial odds to be computed.

Principal Financial Target Price Odds to finish below 54.09

The tendency of Principal Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 54.09  or more in 90 days
 86.07 90 days 54.09 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Principal Financial to drop to $ 54.09  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Principal Financial Group probability density function shows the probability of Principal Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Principal Financial price to stay between $ 54.09  and its current price of $86.07 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Principal Financial has a beta of 0.55 indicating as returns on the market go up, Principal Financial average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Principal Financial Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Principal Financial Group has an alpha of 0.0746, implying that it can generate a 0.0746 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Principal Financial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Principal Financial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Principal Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Principal Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
85.0586.0487.03
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
67.8168.8094.68
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
86.4387.4388.42
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.8175.6283.94
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Principal Financial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Principal Financial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Principal Financial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Principal Financial.

Principal Financial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Principal Financial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Principal Financial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Principal Financial Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Principal Financial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.55
σ
Overall volatility
2.07
Ir
Information ratio 0.02

Principal Financial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Principal Financial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Principal Financial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from businesswire.com: UNLEASH America 2024 Americas premier HR conference and expo

Principal Financial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Principal Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Principal Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Principal Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding244.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments27.2 B

Principal Financial Technical Analysis

Principal Financial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Principal Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Principal Financial Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Principal Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Principal Financial Predictive Forecast Models

Principal Financial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Principal Financial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Principal Financial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Principal Financial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Principal Financial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Principal Financial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 72.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from businesswire.com: UNLEASH America 2024 Americas premier HR conference and expo
When determining whether Principal Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Principal Financial's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Principal Financial's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Principal Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Principal Financial Backtesting, Principal Financial Valuation, Principal Financial Correlation, Principal Financial Hype Analysis, Principal Financial Volatility, Principal Financial History as well as Principal Financial Performance.
Note that the Principal Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Principal Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.

Complementary Tools for Principal Stock analysis

When running Principal Financial's price analysis, check to measure Principal Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Principal Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Principal Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Principal Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Principal Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Principal Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Principal Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Principal Financial. If investors know Principal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Principal Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.02)
Dividend Share
2.6
Earnings Share
2.55
Revenue Per Share
56.634
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.15)
The market value of Principal Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Principal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Principal Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Principal Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Principal Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Principal Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Principal Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Principal Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Principal Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.