NIO Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 3.0

NIO -- USA Stock  

USD 3.21  0.18  5.94%

NIO probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of NIO performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify NIO time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like NIO odds to be computed. Please see also NIO Backtesting, NIO Valuation, NIO Correlation, NIO Hype Analysis, NIO Volatility, NIO History as well as NIO Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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NIO Target Price Odds to finish over 3.0

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 3.00  in 30 days
 3.21 30 days 3.00 
ABOUT 59.94%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of NIO to stay above $ 3.00  in 30 days from now is about 59.94% (This NIO probability density function shows the probability of NIO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of NIO price to stay between $ 3.00  and its current price of $3.21 at the end of the 30-day period is about 25.82%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, NIO has beta of 0.0338 indicating as returns on market go up, NIO average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding NIO will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.3969 implying that it can potentially generate 0.3969% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 NIO Price Density 
Alpha over DOW
Beta against DOW=0.0338
Overall volatility
Information ratio =0.09

NIO Alerts and Suggestions

NIO has very high historical volatility over the last 30 days
NIO has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial commitments
The company reported last year revenue of 230.37M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (3.43B) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (255.88M).
NUVEEN INS MUNI O has about 1.39B in cash with (923.68M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.05 which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
Roughly 53.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders
Latest headline from Where NIO Inc. stock is going ahead Now Reached at 3.21 - NEWS SCANNER

NIOPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out13.38%
Float Shares635.02M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day15.51M
Shares Short Prior Month161.05M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month25.65M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019