Mondelez International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 54.1

MDLZ Stock  USD 70.10  0.06  0.09%   
Mondelez International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Mondelez International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Mondelez International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Mondelez International over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $70.0 is a CALL option contract on Mondelez International's common stock with a strick price of 70.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:29:07 for $0.25 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.25, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 13.27. View All Mondelez options

Closest to current price Mondelez long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Mondelez International's future price is the expected price of Mondelez International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Mondelez International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Mondelez International Backtesting, Mondelez International Valuation, Mondelez International Correlation, Mondelez International Hype Analysis, Mondelez International Volatility, Mondelez International History as well as Mondelez International Performance.
For more information on how to buy Mondelez Stock please use our How to Invest in Mondelez International guide.
  
Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to rise to 0.28 in 2024, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 17.62 in 2024. Please specify Mondelez International's target price for which you would like Mondelez International odds to be computed.

Mondelez International Target Price Odds to finish below 54.1

The tendency of Mondelez Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 54.10  or more in 90 days
 70.10 90 days 54.10 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mondelez International to drop to $ 54.10  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mondelez International probability density function shows the probability of Mondelez Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mondelez International price to stay between $ 54.10  and its current price of $70.1 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Mondelez International has a beta of 0.52. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mondelez International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mondelez International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mondelez International has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Mondelez International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Mondelez International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mondelez International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mondelez International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
69.1770.1371.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
63.0973.7374.69
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
68.2869.2470.19
Details
26 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
68.8675.6783.99
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Mondelez International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Mondelez International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Mondelez International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Mondelez International.

Mondelez International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mondelez International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mondelez International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mondelez International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mondelez International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.07
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.52
σ
Overall volatility
1.58
Ir
Information ratio -0.14

Mondelez International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mondelez International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mondelez International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mondelez International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 19.95 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.72, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Mondelez International has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Mondelez International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Mondelez International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Mondelez International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Mondelez to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Mondelez International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Mondelez International has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 84.0% of Mondelez International shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from investorplace.com: 3 Commodity ETFs Worth Biting Into

Mondelez International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mondelez Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mondelez International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mondelez International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding1.4 B
Cash And Short Term Investments1.8 B

Mondelez International Technical Analysis

Mondelez International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mondelez Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mondelez International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mondelez Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Mondelez International Predictive Forecast Models

Mondelez International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Mondelez International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mondelez International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Mondelez International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Mondelez International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mondelez International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Mondelez International generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 19.95 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.72, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Mondelez International has a current ratio of 0.67, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Mondelez International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Mondelez International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Mondelez International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Mondelez to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Mondelez International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Mondelez International has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 84.0% of Mondelez International shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from investorplace.com: 3 Commodity ETFs Worth Biting Into
When determining whether Mondelez International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Mondelez International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Mondelez International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Mondelez International Stock:

Complementary Tools for Mondelez Stock analysis

When running Mondelez International's price analysis, check to measure Mondelez International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mondelez International is operating at the current time. Most of Mondelez International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mondelez International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mondelez International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mondelez International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Mondelez International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mondelez International. If investors know Mondelez will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mondelez International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.669
Dividend Share
1.62
Earnings Share
3.62
Revenue Per Share
26.424
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.071
The market value of Mondelez International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mondelez that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mondelez International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mondelez International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mondelez International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mondelez International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mondelez International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mondelez International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mondelez International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.