Marriott International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 137.07

MAR Stock  USD 253.56  1.38  0.55%   
Marriott International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Marriott International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Marriott International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Marriott International over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $252.5 is a CALL option contract on Marriott International's common stock with a strick price of 252.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:28:48 for $1.94 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.6, and an ask price of $1.85. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 20.86. View All Marriott options

Closest to current price Marriott long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Marriott International's future price is the expected price of Marriott International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Marriott International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Marriott International Backtesting, Marriott International Valuation, Marriott International Correlation, Marriott International Hype Analysis, Marriott International Volatility, Marriott International History as well as Marriott International Performance.
To learn how to invest in Marriott Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.
  
At this time, Marriott International's Price To Sales Ratio is relatively stable compared to the past year. As of 03/28/2024, Price Sales Ratio is likely to grow to 3.01, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 19.48. Please specify Marriott International's target price for which you would like Marriott International odds to be computed.

Marriott International Target Price Odds to finish over 137.07

The tendency of Marriott Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 137.07  in 90 days
 253.56 90 days 137.07 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Marriott International to stay above $ 137.07  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Marriott International probability density function shows the probability of Marriott Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Marriott International price to stay between $ 137.07  and its current price of $253.56 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.01 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.4 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Marriott International will likely underperform. Additionally Marriott International has an alpha of 0.0263, implying that it can generate a 0.0263 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Marriott International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Marriott International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marriott International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marriott International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
252.40253.65254.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
198.21199.46278.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
250.86252.11253.36
Details
25 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
189.96208.75231.71
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Marriott International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Marriott International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Marriott International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Marriott International.

Marriott International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Marriott International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Marriott International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Marriott International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Marriott International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.40
σ
Overall volatility
10.78
Ir
Information ratio 0.06

Marriott International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Marriott International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Marriott International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 12.76 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 9.81, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Marriott International has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Marriott International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Marriott International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Marriott International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Marriott to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Marriott International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Marriott International has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 65.0% of Marriott International shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Marriott International Gains But Lags Market What You Should Know

Marriott International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Marriott Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Marriott International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marriott International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding302.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments338 M

Marriott International Technical Analysis

Marriott International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Marriott Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Marriott International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Marriott Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Marriott International Predictive Forecast Models

Marriott International's time-series forecasting models is one of many Marriott International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Marriott International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Marriott International

Checking the ongoing alerts about Marriott International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Marriott International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company has 12.76 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 9.81, demonstrating that the company may be unable to create cash to meet all of its financial commitments. Marriott International has a current ratio of 0.51, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Marriott International until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Marriott International's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Marriott International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Marriott to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Marriott International's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Marriott International has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
About 65.0% of Marriott International shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Marriott International Gains But Lags Market What You Should Know
When determining whether Marriott International is a strong investment it is important to analyze Marriott International's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Marriott International's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Marriott Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Marriott International Backtesting, Marriott International Valuation, Marriott International Correlation, Marriott International Hype Analysis, Marriott International Volatility, Marriott International History as well as Marriott International Performance.
To learn how to invest in Marriott Stock, please use our How to Invest in Marriott International guide.
Note that the Marriott International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Marriott International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the AI Investment Finder module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.

Complementary Tools for Marriott Stock analysis

When running Marriott International's price analysis, check to measure Marriott International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marriott International is operating at the current time. Most of Marriott International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marriott International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marriott International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marriott International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
Share Portfolio
Track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device
Sync Your Broker
Sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors.
Idea Breakdown
Analyze constituents of all Macroaxis ideas. Macroaxis investment ideas are predefined, sector-focused investing themes
Fundamentals Comparison
Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities
AI Investment Finder
Use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities
Is Marriott International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marriott International. If investors know Marriott will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marriott International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.354
Dividend Share
1.96
Earnings Share
10.19
Revenue Per Share
20.896
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.116
The market value of Marriott International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marriott that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marriott International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marriott International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marriott International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marriott International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marriott International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marriott International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marriott International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.