Southwest Airlines Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 59.74

LUV Stock  USD 29.27  0.86  3.03%   
Southwest Airlines' implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Southwest Airlines. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Southwest Airlines based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Southwest Airlines over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $29.5 is a CALL option contract on Southwest Airlines' common stock with a strick price of 29.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:57:17 for $0.1 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.08, and an ask price of $0.11. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 31.66. View All Southwest options

Closest to current price Southwest long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Southwest Airlines' future price is the expected price of Southwest Airlines instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Southwest Airlines performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Southwest Airlines Backtesting, Southwest Airlines Valuation, Southwest Airlines Correlation, Southwest Airlines Hype Analysis, Southwest Airlines Volatility, Southwest Airlines History as well as Southwest Airlines Performance.
For more information on how to buy Southwest Stock please use our How to Invest in Southwest Airlines guide.
  
At this time, Southwest Airlines' Price Earnings Ratio is fairly stable compared to the past year. Price To Sales Ratio is likely to climb to 1.08 in 2024, despite the fact that Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is likely to grow to (2.64). Please specify Southwest Airlines' target price for which you would like Southwest Airlines odds to be computed.

Southwest Airlines Target Price Odds to finish over 59.74

The tendency of Southwest Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 59.74  or more in 90 days
 29.27 90 days 59.74 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Southwest Airlines to move over $ 59.74  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Southwest Airlines probability density function shows the probability of Southwest Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Southwest Airlines price to stay between its current price of $ 29.27  and $ 59.74  at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.17 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Southwest Airlines has a beta of 0.82. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Southwest Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Southwest Airlines will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Southwest Airlines has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Southwest Airlines Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Southwest Airlines

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Southwest Airlines. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Southwest Airlines' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
26.5329.3132.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
27.6830.4633.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
27.8830.6533.43
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
28.0030.7734.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Southwest Airlines. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Southwest Airlines' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Southwest Airlines' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Southwest Airlines.

Southwest Airlines Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Southwest Airlines is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Southwest Airlines' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Southwest Airlines, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Southwest Airlines within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.08
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.82
σ
Overall volatility
2.33
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Southwest Airlines Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Southwest Airlines for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Southwest Airlines can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 27th of March 2024 Southwest Airlines paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from deadline.com: 3 Body Problem Debuts In Second Place On Netflix Top 10

Southwest Airlines Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Southwest Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Southwest Airlines' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Southwest Airlines' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding640 M
Cash And Short Term Investments11.5 B

Southwest Airlines Technical Analysis

Southwest Airlines' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Southwest Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Southwest Airlines. In general, you should focus on analyzing Southwest Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Southwest Airlines Predictive Forecast Models

Southwest Airlines' time-series forecasting models is one of many Southwest Airlines' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Southwest Airlines' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Southwest Airlines

Checking the ongoing alerts about Southwest Airlines for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Southwest Airlines help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 82.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
On 27th of March 2024 Southwest Airlines paid $ 0.18 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from deadline.com: 3 Body Problem Debuts In Second Place On Netflix Top 10
When determining whether Southwest Airlines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Southwest Airlines' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Southwest Airlines' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Southwest Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Southwest Stock analysis

When running Southwest Airlines' price analysis, check to measure Southwest Airlines' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Southwest Airlines is operating at the current time. Most of Southwest Airlines' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Southwest Airlines' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Southwest Airlines' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Southwest Airlines to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Southwest Airlines' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Southwest Airlines. If investors know Southwest will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Southwest Airlines listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.30)
Dividend Share
0.72
Earnings Share
0.76
Revenue Per Share
43.85
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.105
The market value of Southwest Airlines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Southwest that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Southwest Airlines' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Southwest Airlines' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Southwest Airlines' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Southwest Airlines' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Southwest Airlines' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Southwest Airlines is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Southwest Airlines' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.