Lincoln National Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 62.93
| LNC Stock | USD 26.85 0.45 1.65% |
Closest to current price Lincoln long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Lincoln |
Lincoln National Target Price Odds to finish over 62.93
The tendency of Lincoln Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 62.93 or more in 90 days |
| 26.85 | 90 days | 62.93 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Lincoln National to move over $ 62.93 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Lincoln National probability density function shows the probability of Lincoln Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Lincoln National price to stay between its current price of $ 26.85 and $ 62.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 69.6 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.75 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Lincoln National will likely underperform. Additionally Lincoln National has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Lincoln National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Lincoln National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lincoln National. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lincoln National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lincoln National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Lincoln National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Lincoln National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Lincoln National, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Lincoln National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.09 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.75 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Lincoln National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Lincoln National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Lincoln National can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the last year's revenue of 14.02 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (752 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.73 B). | |
| Lincoln National has about 3.34 B in cash with (2.07 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 30.7, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from upi.com: Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts donates 500,000 to abortion ban ballot initiative |
Lincoln National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Lincoln Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Lincoln National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lincoln National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23 B |
Lincoln National Technical Analysis
Lincoln National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Lincoln Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Lincoln National. In general, you should focus on analyzing Lincoln Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Lincoln National Predictive Forecast Models
Lincoln National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Lincoln National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Lincoln National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Lincoln National
Checking the ongoing alerts about Lincoln National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Lincoln National help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 14.02 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (752 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.73 B). | |
| Lincoln National has about 3.34 B in cash with (2.07 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 30.7, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from upi.com: Nebraska Sen. Pete Ricketts donates 500,000 to abortion ban ballot initiative |
Check out Lincoln National Backtesting, Lincoln National Valuation, Lincoln National Correlation, Lincoln National Hype Analysis, Lincoln National Volatility, Lincoln National History as well as Lincoln National Performance. For information on how to trade Lincoln Stock refer to our How to Trade Lincoln Stock guide.You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
Complementary Tools for Lincoln Stock analysis
When running Lincoln National's price analysis, check to measure Lincoln National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lincoln National is operating at the current time. Most of Lincoln National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lincoln National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lincoln National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lincoln National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lincoln National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lincoln National. If investors know Lincoln will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lincoln National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share (4.92) | Revenue Per Share 68.677 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.82) |
The market value of Lincoln National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lincoln that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lincoln National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lincoln National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lincoln National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lincoln National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lincoln National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lincoln National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lincoln National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.