Lci Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 86.51
| LCII Stock | USD 103.50 2.35 2.22% |
LCI |
LCI Industries Target Price Odds to finish below 86.51
The tendency of LCI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 86.51 or more in 90 days |
| 103.50 | 90 days | 86.51 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of LCI Industries to drop to $ 86.51 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This LCI Industries probability density function shows the probability of LCI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of LCI Industries price to stay between $ 86.51 and its current price of $103.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 1.33 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days LCI Industries has a beta of 0.0274. This indicates as returns on the market go up, LCI Industries average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding LCI Industries will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally LCI Industries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. LCI Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for LCI Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LCI Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LCI Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LCI Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. LCI Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the LCI Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold LCI Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of LCI Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.38 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
LCI Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of LCI Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for LCI Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| LCI Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 22nd of March 2024 LCI Industries paid $ 1.05 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
LCI Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of LCI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential LCI Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LCI Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 25.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 66.2 M |
LCI Industries Technical Analysis
LCI Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. LCI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of LCI Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing LCI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
LCI Industries Predictive Forecast Models
LCI Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many LCI Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary LCI Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about LCI Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about LCI Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for LCI Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| LCI Industries generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Over 96.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 22nd of March 2024 LCI Industries paid $ 1.05 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Check out LCI Industries Backtesting, LCI Industries Valuation, LCI Industries Correlation, LCI Industries Hype Analysis, LCI Industries Volatility, LCI Industries History as well as LCI Industries Performance. For more detail on how to invest in LCI Stock please use our How to Invest in LCI Industries guide.You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
Complementary Tools for LCI Stock analysis
When running LCI Industries' price analysis, check to measure LCI Industries' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy LCI Industries is operating at the current time. Most of LCI Industries' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of LCI Industries' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move LCI Industries' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of LCI Industries to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is LCI Industries' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LCI Industries. If investors know LCI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about LCI Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of LCI Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LCI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LCI Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LCI Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LCI Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LCI Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between LCI Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if LCI Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, LCI Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.