Imperial Oil Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 29.383

IMO Stock  USD 69.13  0.48  0.70%   
Imperial Oil's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Imperial Oil. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Imperial Oil based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Imperial Oil over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $70.0 is a CALL option contract on Imperial Oil's common stock with a strick price of 70.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-28 at 14:44:23 for $0.98 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.95, and an ask price of $1.1. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 20.56. View All Imperial options

Closest to current price Imperial long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Imperial Oil's future price is the expected price of Imperial Oil instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Imperial Oil performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Imperial Oil Backtesting, Imperial Oil Valuation, Imperial Oil Correlation, Imperial Oil Hype Analysis, Imperial Oil Volatility, Imperial Oil History as well as Imperial Oil Performance.
To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.
  
At this time, Imperial Oil's Price To Sales Ratio is very stable compared to the past year. As of the 29th of March 2024, Price Book Value Ratio is likely to grow to 1.98, while Price Earnings Ratio is likely to drop 6.28. Please specify Imperial Oil's target price for which you would like Imperial Oil odds to be computed.

Imperial Oil Target Price Odds to finish over 29.383

The tendency of Imperial Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 29.38  in 90 days
 69.13 90 days 29.38 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Imperial Oil to stay above $ 29.38  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Imperial Oil probability density function shows the probability of Imperial Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Imperial Oil price to stay between $ 29.38  and its current price of $69.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Imperial Oil has a beta of 0.72. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Imperial Oil average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Imperial Oil will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Imperial Oil has an alpha of 0.2154, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Imperial Oil Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Imperial Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Imperial Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Imperial Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
67.5569.0270.49
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
62.2272.3873.85
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
67.6569.1270.60
Details
18 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
61.3167.3774.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Imperial Oil. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Imperial Oil's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Imperial Oil's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Imperial Oil.

Imperial Oil Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Imperial Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Imperial Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Imperial Oil, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Imperial Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.22
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.72
σ
Overall volatility
4.28
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

Imperial Oil Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Imperial Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Imperial Oil can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Imperial Oil Price Target Raised to C115.00 at BMO Capital Markets - MarketBeat

Imperial Oil Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Imperial Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Imperial Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Imperial Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding575.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments864 M

Imperial Oil Technical Analysis

Imperial Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Imperial Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Imperial Oil. In general, you should focus on analyzing Imperial Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Imperial Oil Predictive Forecast Models

Imperial Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Imperial Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Imperial Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Imperial Oil

Checking the ongoing alerts about Imperial Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Imperial Oil help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
About 70.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders
Latest headline from news.google.com: Imperial Oil Price Target Raised to C115.00 at BMO Capital Markets - MarketBeat
When determining whether Imperial Oil offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Imperial Oil's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Imperial Oil Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Imperial Oil Stock:
Check out Imperial Oil Backtesting, Imperial Oil Valuation, Imperial Oil Correlation, Imperial Oil Hype Analysis, Imperial Oil Volatility, Imperial Oil History as well as Imperial Oil Performance.
To learn how to invest in Imperial Stock, please use our How to Invest in Imperial Oil guide.
You can also try the Price Ceiling Movement module to calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments.

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When running Imperial Oil's price analysis, check to measure Imperial Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Imperial Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Imperial Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Imperial Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Imperial Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Imperial Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Imperial Oil's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Imperial Oil. If investors know Imperial will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Imperial Oil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.14)
Dividend Share
1.94
Earnings Share
6.25
Revenue Per Share
88.208
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.1)
The market value of Imperial Oil is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Imperial that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Imperial Oil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Imperial Oil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Imperial Oil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Imperial Oil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Imperial Oil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Imperial Oil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Imperial Oil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.