The Hain Celestial Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.9

HAIN Stock  USD 6.18  0.17  2.83%   
Hain Celestial's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on The Hain Celestial. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Hain Celestial based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in The Hain Celestial over a specific time period. For example, 2024-05-17 CALL at $6.0 is a CALL option contract on Hain Celestial's common stock with a strick price of 6.0 expiring on 2024-05-17. The contract was last traded on 2024-04-22 at 15:27:25 for $0.38 and, as of today, has 24 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.35, and an ask price of $0.45. The implied volatility as of the 23rd of April is 59.47. View All Hain options

Closest to current price Hain long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Hain Celestial's future price is the expected price of Hain Celestial instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of The Hain Celestial performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Hain Celestial Backtesting, Hain Celestial Valuation, Hain Celestial Correlation, Hain Celestial Hype Analysis, Hain Celestial Volatility, Hain Celestial History as well as Hain Celestial Performance.
  
At this time, Hain Celestial's Price Fair Value is very stable compared to the past year. Please specify Hain Celestial's target price for which you would like Hain Celestial odds to be computed.

Hain Celestial Target Price Odds to finish over 21.9

The tendency of Hain Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 21.90  or more in 90 days
 6.18 90 days 21.90 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hain Celestial to move over $ 21.90  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This The Hain Celestial probability density function shows the probability of Hain Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hain Celestial price to stay between its current price of $ 6.18  and $ 21.90  at the end of the 90-day period is under 95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.26 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Hain Celestial will likely underperform. Additionally The Hain Celestial has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite.
   Hain Celestial Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Hain Celestial

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hain Celestial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hain Celestial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.726.119.50
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
4.698.0811.47
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
13.0414.3315.91
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.050.080.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hain Celestial. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hain Celestial's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hain Celestial's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hain Celestial.

Hain Celestial Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hain Celestial is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hain Celestial's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold The Hain Celestial, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hain Celestial within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.92
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.26
σ
Overall volatility
1.62
Ir
Information ratio -0.26

Hain Celestial Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hain Celestial for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hain Celestial can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hain Celestial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Hain Celestial has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.8 B. Net Loss for the year was (116.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 396.41 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Market Cool On The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.s Revenues Pushing Shares 29 percent Lower

Hain Celestial Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hain Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hain Celestial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hain Celestial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding89.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments53.4 M

Hain Celestial Technical Analysis

Hain Celestial's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hain Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of The Hain Celestial. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hain Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Hain Celestial Predictive Forecast Models

Hain Celestial's time-series forecasting models is one of many Hain Celestial's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hain Celestial's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Hain Celestial

Checking the ongoing alerts about Hain Celestial for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hain Celestial help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Hain Celestial generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Hain Celestial has high historical volatility and very poor performance
The company reported the previous year's revenue of 1.8 B. Net Loss for the year was (116.54 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 396.41 M.
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Market Cool On The Hain Celestial Group, Inc.s Revenues Pushing Shares 29 percent Lower
When determining whether Hain Celestial offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hain Celestial's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of The Hain Celestial Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on The Hain Celestial Stock:

Complementary Tools for Hain Stock analysis

When running Hain Celestial's price analysis, check to measure Hain Celestial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hain Celestial is operating at the current time. Most of Hain Celestial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hain Celestial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hain Celestial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hain Celestial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hain Celestial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hain Celestial. If investors know Hain will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hain Celestial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.64)
Earnings Share
(1.77)
Revenue Per Share
19.901
Return On Assets
0.0214
Return On Equity
(0.15)
The market value of Hain Celestial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hain that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hain Celestial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hain Celestial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hain Celestial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hain Celestial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hain Celestial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hain Celestial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hain Celestial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.