Graphic Packaging Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 15.55

GPK Stock  USD 29.09  0.19  0.66%   
Graphic Packaging's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Graphic Packaging Holding. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Graphic Packaging based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Graphic Packaging Holding over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $30.0 is a CALL option contract on Graphic Packaging's common stock with a strick price of 30.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 10:40:48 for $0.32 and, as of today, has 22 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.2, and an ask price of $0.35. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 22.7. View All Graphic options

Closest to current price Graphic long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Graphic Packaging's future price is the expected price of Graphic Packaging instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Graphic Packaging Holding performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Graphic Packaging Backtesting, Graphic Packaging Valuation, Graphic Packaging Correlation, Graphic Packaging Hype Analysis, Graphic Packaging Volatility, Graphic Packaging History as well as Graphic Packaging Performance.
  
At this time, Graphic Packaging's Price Earnings Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is expected to rise to 0.30 this year, although the value of Price To Sales Ratio will most likely fall to 0.42. Please specify Graphic Packaging's target price for which you would like Graphic Packaging odds to be computed.

Graphic Packaging Target Price Odds to finish over 15.55

The tendency of Graphic Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 15.55  in 90 days
 29.09 90 days 15.55 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Graphic Packaging to stay above $ 15.55  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Graphic Packaging Holding probability density function shows the probability of Graphic Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Graphic Packaging Holding price to stay between $ 15.55  and its current price of $29.09 at the end of the 90-day period is close to 99 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Graphic Packaging has a beta of 0.97. This usually indicates Graphic Packaging Holding market returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Graphic Packaging is expected to follow. Additionally Graphic Packaging Holding has an alpha of 0.1464, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Graphic Packaging Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Graphic Packaging

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Graphic Packaging Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Graphic Packaging's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
27.6429.1730.70
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
28.3829.9131.44
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
27.5129.0530.58
Details
10 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
25.7528.3031.41
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Graphic Packaging. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Graphic Packaging's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Graphic Packaging's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Graphic Packaging Holding.

Graphic Packaging Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Graphic Packaging is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Graphic Packaging's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Graphic Packaging Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Graphic Packaging within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.15
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.97
σ
Overall volatility
1.21
Ir
Information ratio 0.1

Graphic Packaging Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Graphic Packaging for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Graphic Packaging Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Graphic Packaging has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Why the Market Dipped But Graphic Packaging Gained Today

Graphic Packaging Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Graphic Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Graphic Packaging's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Graphic Packaging's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding306.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments162 M

Graphic Packaging Technical Analysis

Graphic Packaging's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Graphic Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Graphic Packaging Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Graphic Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Graphic Packaging Predictive Forecast Models

Graphic Packaging's time-series forecasting models is one of many Graphic Packaging's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Graphic Packaging's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Graphic Packaging Holding

Checking the ongoing alerts about Graphic Packaging for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Graphic Packaging Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Graphic Packaging is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Graphic Packaging has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from zacks.com: Why the Market Dipped But Graphic Packaging Gained Today
When determining whether Graphic Packaging Holding is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Graphic Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Graphic Packaging Holding Stock:

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When running Graphic Packaging's price analysis, check to measure Graphic Packaging's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Graphic Packaging is operating at the current time. Most of Graphic Packaging's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Graphic Packaging's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Graphic Packaging's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Graphic Packaging to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Graphic Packaging's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Graphic Packaging. If investors know Graphic will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Graphic Packaging listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.26
Dividend Share
0.4
Earnings Share
2.34
Revenue Per Share
30.591
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.06)
The market value of Graphic Packaging Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Graphic that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Graphic Packaging's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Graphic Packaging's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Graphic Packaging's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Graphic Packaging's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Graphic Packaging's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Graphic Packaging is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Graphic Packaging's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.