Alphabet Probability of Target Price

Alphabet probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alphabet Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alphabet time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alphabet odds to be computed. Please also check Alphabet Backtesting, Alphabet Valuation, Alphabet Correlation, Alphabet Hype Analysis, Alphabet Volatility, Alphabet History as well as Alphabet Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 862.76 30 days 807.91  about 98.0% about 1.5%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alphabet to drop to $ 807.91  or more in 30 days from now is about 1.5%. Probability of Alphabet Inc price to stay between $ 807.91  and its current price of $862.76 at the end of the 30-day period is about 98.0%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Alphabet Inc has beta of -0.4172 . This indicates as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Alphabet are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Alphabet Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Alphabet Inc has an alpha of 0.2272 implying that it can potentially generate 0.2272% excess return over NYSE after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
1.0%
Odds to drop to $ 807.91  or more in 30 days
 Alphabet Price Density 
 
Embed  
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over NYSE
= 0.23 
βBeta against NYSE=(0.42) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 10.66 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.36