Facebook Probability of Target Price Finishing Over 185.99

FB -- USA Stock  

USD 184.71  2.20  1.18%

Facebook probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Facebook performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Facebook time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Facebook odds to be computed. Additionally see Facebook Backtesting, Facebook Valuation, Facebook Correlation, Facebook Hype Analysis, Facebook Volatility, Facebook History as well as Facebook Performance.
Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Facebook Target Price Odds to finish over 185.99

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 185.99  or more in 30 days
 184.71 30 days 185.99 
ABOUT 71.78%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Facebook to move over $ 185.99  or more in 30 days from now is about 71.78% (This Facebook probability density function shows the probability of Facebook Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 30 days) . Probability of Facebook price to stay between its current price of $ 184.71  and $ 185.99  at the end of the 30-day period is about 5.35%.
Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Facebook has beta of -0.1761 suggesting as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Facebook are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Facebook is likely to outperform the market. Additionally The company has an alpha of 0.1069 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1069% excess return over DOW after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
 Facebook Price Density 
      Price 
α
Alpha over DOW
=0.11
β
Beta against DOW=0.18
σ
Overall volatility
=7.67
Ir
Information ratio =0.06

Facebook Alerts and Suggestions

Facebook generates negative expected return over the last 30 days
About 75.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors
Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Sale by Sheryl Sandberg of 169756 shares of Facebook

FacebookPrice Density Drivers

Shares Percent Shares Out0.92%
Short Percent Of Float1.10%
Float Shares2.38B
Shares Short Prior Month26.25M
Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day12.19M
Average Daily Volume In Three Month15.41M
Date Short InterestAugust 15, 2019
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