Expedia Group Stock Odds of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 126.65

EXPE Stock  USD 138.99  2.37  1.73%   
Expedia's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Expedia Group. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Expedia based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Expedia Group over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $139.0 is a CALL option contract on Expedia's common stock with a strick price of 139.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:04:17 for $0.65 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.61, and an ask price of $0.68. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 22.45. View All Expedia options

Closest to current price Expedia long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Expedia's future price is the expected price of Expedia instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Expedia Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Expedia Backtesting, Expedia Valuation, Expedia Correlation, Expedia Hype Analysis, Expedia Volatility, Expedia History as well as Expedia Performance.
  
At present, Expedia's Price Book Value Ratio is projected to slightly grow based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is expected to grow to 0.20, whereas Price Earnings Ratio is forecasted to decline to 26.23. Please specify Expedia's target price for which you would like Expedia odds to be computed.

Expedia Target Price Odds to finish below 126.65

The tendency of Expedia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 126.65  or more in 90 days
 138.99 90 days 126.65 
about 1.96
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Expedia to drop to $ 126.65  or more in 90 days from now is about 1.96 (This Expedia Group probability density function shows the probability of Expedia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Expedia Group price to stay between $ 126.65  and its current price of $138.99 at the end of the 90-day period is about 27.95 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Expedia has a beta of 0.94 suggesting Expedia Group market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Expedia is expected to follow. Additionally Expedia Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Expedia Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Expedia

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Expedia Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Expedia's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
136.51139.23141.95
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
131.74134.46152.89
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
132.76135.47138.19
Details
36 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
115.32126.72140.66
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Expedia. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Expedia's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Expedia's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Expedia Group.

Expedia Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Expedia is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Expedia's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Expedia Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Expedia within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.25
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.94
σ
Overall volatility
8.06
Ir
Information ratio -0.1

Expedia Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Expedia for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Expedia Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Expedia Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 6.57 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.76, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Expedia Group has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Expedia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Expedia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Expedia Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Expedia to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Expedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Expedia Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 97.0% of Expedia shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Disposition of 10704 shares by Gorin Ariane of Expedia subject to Rule 16b-3

Expedia Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Expedia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Expedia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Expedia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding150.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments5.7 B

Expedia Technical Analysis

Expedia's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Expedia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Expedia Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Expedia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Expedia Predictive Forecast Models

Expedia's time-series forecasting models is one of many Expedia's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Expedia's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Expedia Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Expedia for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Expedia Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Expedia Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 6.57 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 1.76, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Expedia Group has a current ratio of 0.81, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Expedia until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Expedia's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Expedia Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Expedia to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Expedia's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
Expedia Group has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings
Over 97.0% of Expedia shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Disposition of 10704 shares by Gorin Ariane of Expedia subject to Rule 16b-3
When determining whether Expedia Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Expedia's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Expedia's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Expedia Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Expedia Stock analysis

When running Expedia's price analysis, check to measure Expedia's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Expedia is operating at the current time. Most of Expedia's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Expedia's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Expedia's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Expedia to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Expedia's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Expedia. If investors know Expedia will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Expedia listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.17)
Earnings Share
5.31
Revenue Per Share
88.565
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.103
Return On Assets
0.0424
The market value of Expedia Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Expedia that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Expedia's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Expedia's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Expedia's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Expedia's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Expedia's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Expedia is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Expedia's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.