Caci International Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 210.64

CACI Stock  USD 378.83  0.06  0.02%   
CACI International's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on CACI International. Implied volatility approximates the future value of CACI International based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in CACI International over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $380.0 is a CALL option contract on CACI International's common stock with a strick price of 380.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 12:28:57 for $5.5 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $5.1, and an ask price of $7.9. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 17.94. View All CACI options

Closest to current price CACI long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

CACI International's future price is the expected price of CACI International instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of CACI International performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out CACI International Backtesting, CACI International Valuation, CACI International Correlation, CACI International Hype Analysis, CACI International Volatility, CACI International History as well as CACI International Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in CACI Stock please use our How to Invest in CACI International guide.
  
The CACI International's current Price To Free Cash Flows Ratio is estimated to increase to 29.43, while Price Earnings Ratio is projected to decrease to 18.91. Please specify CACI International's target price for which you would like CACI International odds to be computed.

CACI International Target Price Odds to finish below 210.64

The tendency of CACI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to $ 210.64  or more in 90 days
 378.83 90 days 210.64 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CACI International to drop to $ 210.64  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This CACI International probability density function shows the probability of CACI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CACI International price to stay between $ 210.64  and its current price of $378.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 89.85 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days CACI International has a beta of 0.67 suggesting as returns on the market go up, CACI International average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CACI International will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CACI International has an alpha of 0.1629, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   CACI International Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for CACI International

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CACI International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of CACI International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
377.77378.83379.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
340.95428.19429.25
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
380.34381.41382.47
Details
14 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
342.91376.82418.27
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as CACI International. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against CACI International's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, CACI International's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in CACI International.

CACI International Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CACI International is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CACI International's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CACI International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CACI International within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.67
σ
Overall volatility
20.44
Ir
Information ratio 0.12

CACI International Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of CACI International for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for CACI International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CACI International is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Why CACI International Inc Could Be Worth Watching

CACI International Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of CACI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential CACI International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. CACI International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding23.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments115.8 M

CACI International Technical Analysis

CACI International's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CACI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CACI International. In general, you should focus on analyzing CACI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

CACI International Predictive Forecast Models

CACI International's time-series forecasting models is one of many CACI International's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CACI International's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about CACI International

Checking the ongoing alerts about CACI International for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for CACI International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
CACI International is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years
Over 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from simplywall.st: Why CACI International Inc Could Be Worth Watching
When determining whether CACI International offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of CACI International's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Caci International Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Caci International Stock:
Check out CACI International Backtesting, CACI International Valuation, CACI International Correlation, CACI International Hype Analysis, CACI International Volatility, CACI International History as well as CACI International Performance.
For more detail on how to invest in CACI Stock please use our How to Invest in CACI International guide.
Note that the CACI International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other CACI International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

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When running CACI International's price analysis, check to measure CACI International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CACI International is operating at the current time. Most of CACI International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CACI International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CACI International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CACI International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is CACI International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of CACI International. If investors know CACI will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about CACI International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.016
Earnings Share
16.48
Revenue Per Share
314.209
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.112
Return On Assets
0.0544
The market value of CACI International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of CACI that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of CACI International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is CACI International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because CACI International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect CACI International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between CACI International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if CACI International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, CACI International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.