Blue Bird Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 21.23375

BLBD Stock  USD 38.34  0.49  1.29%   
Blue Bird's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Blue Bird Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Blue Bird based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Blue Bird Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-04-19 CALL at $40.0 is a CALL option contract on Blue Bird's common stock with a strick price of 40.0 expiring on 2024-04-19. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-26 at 13:17:01 for $0.5 and, as of today, has 21 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.45, and an ask price of $0.95. The implied volatility as of the 29th of March is 39.41. View All Blue options

Closest to current price Blue long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Blue Bird's future price is the expected price of Blue Bird instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Blue Bird Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Blue Bird Backtesting, Blue Bird Valuation, Blue Bird Correlation, Blue Bird Hype Analysis, Blue Bird Volatility, Blue Bird History as well as Blue Bird Performance.
  
At present, Blue Bird's Price To Book Ratio is projected to increase significantly based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Fair Value is expected to grow to 1,375, whereas Price To Sales Ratio is forecasted to decline to 0.39. Please specify Blue Bird's target price for which you would like Blue Bird odds to be computed.

Blue Bird Target Price Odds to finish over 21.23375

The tendency of Blue Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to stay above $ 21.23  in 90 days
 38.34 90 days 21.23 
close to 99
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Blue Bird to stay above $ 21.23  in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Blue Bird Corp probability density function shows the probability of Blue Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Blue Bird Corp price to stay between $ 21.23  and its current price of $38.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 98.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.39 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Blue Bird will likely underperform. Additionally Blue Bird Corp has an alpha of 0.3203, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Blue Bird Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Blue Bird

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Blue Bird Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Blue Bird's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
35.7838.3440.90
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
38.2540.8143.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
36.7839.3441.89
Details
7 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
25.1027.5830.61
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Blue Bird. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Blue Bird's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Blue Bird's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Blue Bird Corp.

Blue Bird Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Blue Bird is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Blue Bird's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Blue Bird Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Blue Bird within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
0.32
β
Beta against NYSE Composite2.39
σ
Overall volatility
3.74
Ir
Information ratio 0.19

Blue Bird Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Blue Bird for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Blue Bird Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Blue Bird Hits New 12-Month High at 37.28 - MarketBeat

Blue Bird Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Blue Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Blue Bird's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Blue Bird's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding32.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments79 M

Blue Bird Technical Analysis

Blue Bird's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Blue Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Blue Bird Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Blue Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Blue Bird Predictive Forecast Models

Blue Bird's time-series forecasting models is one of many Blue Bird's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Blue Bird's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Blue Bird Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about Blue Bird for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Blue Bird Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Over 83.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: Blue Bird Hits New 12-Month High at 37.28 - MarketBeat
When determining whether Blue Bird Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze Blue Bird's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Blue Bird's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Blue Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Blue Bird Backtesting, Blue Bird Valuation, Blue Bird Correlation, Blue Bird Hype Analysis, Blue Bird Volatility, Blue Bird History as well as Blue Bird Performance.
Note that the Blue Bird Corp information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Blue Bird's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.

Complementary Tools for Blue Stock analysis

When running Blue Bird's price analysis, check to measure Blue Bird's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Blue Bird is operating at the current time. Most of Blue Bird's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Blue Bird's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Blue Bird's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Blue Bird to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Blue Bird's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Blue Bird. If investors know Blue will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Blue Bird listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
2.351
Earnings Share
1.9
Revenue Per Share
37.832
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.348
Return On Assets
0.1571
The market value of Blue Bird Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Blue that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Blue Bird's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Blue Bird's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Blue Bird's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Blue Bird's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Blue Bird's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Blue Bird is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Blue Bird's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.