Ginnie Mae Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 11.03

BGNAX Fund  USD 8.88  0.02  0.23%   
Ginnie Mae's future price is the expected price of Ginnie Mae instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Ginnie Mae Fund performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Ginnie Mae Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Ginnie Mae Correlation, Ginnie Mae Hype Analysis, Ginnie Mae Volatility, Ginnie Mae History as well as Ginnie Mae Performance.
  
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Ginnie Mae Target Price Odds to finish over 11.03

The tendency of Ginnie Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 11.03  or more in 90 days
 8.88 90 days 11.03 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ginnie Mae to move over $ 11.03  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Ginnie Mae Fund probability density function shows the probability of Ginnie Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ginnie Mae Fund price to stay between its current price of $ 8.88  and $ 11.03  at the end of the 90-day period is about 38.33 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Ginnie Mae has a beta of 0.0806 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Ginnie Mae average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Ginnie Mae Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Ginnie Mae Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Ginnie Mae Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Ginnie Mae

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ginnie Mae Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ginnie Mae's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.468.889.30
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.468.889.30
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ginnie Mae. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ginnie Mae's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ginnie Mae's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ginnie Mae Fund.

Ginnie Mae Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ginnie Mae is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ginnie Mae's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ginnie Mae Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ginnie Mae within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.03
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.08
σ
Overall volatility
0.07
Ir
Information ratio -0.35

Ginnie Mae Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ginnie Mae for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ginnie Mae Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ginnie Mae Fund generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ginnie Mae Fund generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund holds most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments.

Ginnie Mae Technical Analysis

Ginnie Mae's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ginnie Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ginnie Mae Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ginnie Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Ginnie Mae Predictive Forecast Models

Ginnie Mae's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ginnie Mae's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ginnie Mae's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Ginnie Mae Fund

Checking the ongoing alerts about Ginnie Mae for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ginnie Mae Fund help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Ginnie Mae Fund generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
Ginnie Mae Fund generated five year return of -1.0%
This fund holds most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments.
Check out Ginnie Mae Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Ginnie Mae Correlation, Ginnie Mae Hype Analysis, Ginnie Mae Volatility, Ginnie Mae History as well as Ginnie Mae Performance.
Note that the Ginnie Mae Fund information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ginnie Mae's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Content Syndication module to quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal.

Complementary Tools for Ginnie Mutual Fund analysis

When running Ginnie Mae's price analysis, check to measure Ginnie Mae's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ginnie Mae is operating at the current time. Most of Ginnie Mae's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ginnie Mae's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ginnie Mae's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ginnie Mae to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Please note, there is a significant difference between Ginnie Mae's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ginnie Mae is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ginnie Mae's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.