Agnc Investment Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 16.6

AGNC Stock  USD 9.77  0.02  0.20%   
AGNC Investment's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on AGNC Investment Corp. Implied volatility approximates the future value of AGNC Investment based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in AGNC Investment Corp over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $10.0 is a CALL option contract on AGNC Investment's common stock with a strick price of 10.0 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:29:55 for $0.01 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $0.0, and an ask price of $0.01. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 34.2. View All AGNC options

Closest to current price AGNC long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

AGNC Investment's future price is the expected price of AGNC Investment instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of AGNC Investment Corp performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out AGNC Investment Backtesting, AGNC Investment Valuation, AGNC Investment Correlation, AGNC Investment Hype Analysis, AGNC Investment Volatility, AGNC Investment History as well as AGNC Investment Performance.
  
At present, AGNC Investment's Price To Sales Ratio is projected to increase based on the last few years of reporting. The current year's Price Book Value Ratio is expected to grow to 0.89, whereas Price Earnings To Growth Ratio is projected to grow to (0.36). Please specify AGNC Investment's target price for which you would like AGNC Investment odds to be computed.

AGNC Investment Target Price Odds to finish over 16.6

The tendency of AGNC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 16.60  or more in 90 days
 9.77 90 days 16.60 
close to zero percent
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AGNC Investment to move over $ 16.60  or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This AGNC Investment Corp probability density function shows the probability of AGNC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AGNC Investment Corp price to stay between its current price of $ 9.77  and $ 16.60  at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.33 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.59 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, AGNC Investment will likely underperform. Additionally AGNC Investment Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   AGNC Investment Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for AGNC Investment

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AGNC Investment Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AGNC Investment's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.459.7911.13
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
8.7810.1211.46
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
8.269.6010.95
Details
13 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
9.6610.6111.78
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as AGNC Investment. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against AGNC Investment's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, AGNC Investment's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in AGNC Investment Corp.

AGNC Investment Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AGNC Investment is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AGNC Investment's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AGNC Investment Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AGNC Investment within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.16
β
Beta against NYSE Composite1.59
σ
Overall volatility
0.19
Ir
Information ratio -0.07

AGNC Investment Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AGNC Investment for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AGNC Investment Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 80 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 5.76, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AGNC Investment Corp has a current ratio of 0.23, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist AGNC Investment until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AGNC Investment's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AGNC Investment Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AGNC to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AGNC Investment's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
AGNC Investment Corp currently holds about 9.4 B in cash with (118 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.45, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
AGNC Investment Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 11th of March 2024 AGNC Investment paid $ 0.12 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: AGNC Investment Corp. Shares Bought by Cooper Financial Group - Defense World

AGNC Investment Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AGNC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AGNC Investment's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AGNC Investment's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding619.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments518 M

AGNC Investment Technical Analysis

AGNC Investment's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AGNC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AGNC Investment Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing AGNC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

AGNC Investment Predictive Forecast Models

AGNC Investment's time-series forecasting models is one of many AGNC Investment's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AGNC Investment's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about AGNC Investment Corp

Checking the ongoing alerts about AGNC Investment for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AGNC Investment Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company currently holds 80 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 5.76, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. AGNC Investment Corp has a current ratio of 0.23, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist AGNC Investment until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, AGNC Investment's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like AGNC Investment Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for AGNC to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about AGNC Investment's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
AGNC Investment Corp currently holds about 9.4 B in cash with (118 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 16.45, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow.
AGNC Investment Corp has a frail financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures
On 11th of March 2024 AGNC Investment paid $ 0.12 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from news.google.com: AGNC Investment Corp. Shares Bought by Cooper Financial Group - Defense World
When determining whether AGNC Investment Corp is a strong investment it is important to analyze AGNC Investment's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact AGNC Investment's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding AGNC Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for AGNC Stock analysis

When running AGNC Investment's price analysis, check to measure AGNC Investment's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AGNC Investment is operating at the current time. Most of AGNC Investment's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AGNC Investment's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AGNC Investment's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AGNC Investment to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is AGNC Investment's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of AGNC Investment. If investors know AGNC will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about AGNC Investment listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.40)
Dividend Share
1.44
Earnings Share
0.05
Revenue Per Share
0.406
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.23)
The market value of AGNC Investment Corp is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of AGNC that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of AGNC Investment's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is AGNC Investment's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because AGNC Investment's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect AGNC Investment's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between AGNC Investment's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if AGNC Investment is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, AGNC Investment's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.