Apple Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 245.0

AAPL Stock  USD 171.48  1.83  1.06%   
Apple's implied volatility is one of the determining factors in the pricing options written on Apple Inc. Implied volatility approximates the future value of Apple based on the option's current value. Options with high implied volatility have higher premiums and can be used to hedge the downside of investing in Apple Inc over a specific time period. For example, 2024-03-28 CALL at $172.5 is a CALL option contract on Apple's common stock with a strick price of 172.5 expiring on 2024-03-28. The contract was last traded on 2024-03-27 at 15:59:59 for $1.26 and, as of today, has 0 days remaining before the expiration. The option is currently trading at a bid price of $1.2, and an ask price of $1.29. The implied volatility as of the 28th of March is 21.59. View All Apple options

Closest to current price Apple long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration

Apple's future price is the expected price of Apple instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance.
  
At this time, Apple's Price Sales Ratio is quite stable compared to the past year. Price Fair Value is expected to rise to 40.99 this year, although the value of Price To Operating Cash Flows Ratio will most likely fall to 12.13. Please specify Apple's target price for which you would like Apple odds to be computed.

Apple Target Price Odds to finish over 245.0

The tendency of Apple Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move over $ 245.00  or more in 90 days
 171.48 90 days 245.00 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to move over $ 245.00  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Apple Inc probability density function shows the probability of Apple Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between its current price of $ 171.48  and $ 245.00  at the end of the 90-day period is more than 93.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Apple has a beta of 0.77. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Apple Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE Composite.
   Apple Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Apple

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Apple Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Apple's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
172.25173.57174.89
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
155.98182.72184.04
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
170.52171.84173.16
Details
45 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
170.83187.73208.38
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Apple. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Apple's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Apple's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Apple Inc.

Apple Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Apple is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Apple's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Apple Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Apple within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over NYSE Composite
-0.27
β
Beta against NYSE Composite0.77
σ
Overall volatility
7.66
Ir
Information ratio -0.24

Apple Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Apple for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Apple Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Apple Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 111.09 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.61, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Apple Inc has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Apple until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Apple's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Apple Inc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Apple to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Apple's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 57.0% of Apple shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of February 2024 Apple paid $ 0.24 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from deadline.com: Night Of The Hunter Movie From Scott Derrickson In Works At Universal

Apple Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Apple Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Apple's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Apple's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding15.8 B
Cash And Short Term Investments61.6 B

Apple Technical Analysis

Apple's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Apple Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Apple Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing Apple Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Apple Predictive Forecast Models

Apple's time-series forecasting models is one of many Apple's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Apple's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Apple Inc

Checking the ongoing alerts about Apple for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Apple Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Apple Inc generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
The company currently holds 111.09 B in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 2.61, implying the company greatly relies on financing operations through barrowing. Apple Inc has a current ratio of 0.86, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Apple until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Apple's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Apple Inc sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Apple to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Apple's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.
About 57.0% of Apple shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
On 15th of February 2024 Apple paid $ 0.24 per share dividend to its current shareholders
Latest headline from deadline.com: Night Of The Hunter Movie From Scott Derrickson In Works At Universal
When determining whether Apple Inc is a strong investment it is important to analyze Apple's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Apple's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Apple Stock, refer to the following important reports:

Complementary Tools for Apple Stock analysis

When running Apple's price analysis, check to measure Apple's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Apple is operating at the current time. Most of Apple's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Apple's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Apple's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Apple to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Apple's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Apple. If investors know Apple will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Apple listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.16
Dividend Share
0.95
Earnings Share
6.43
Revenue Per Share
24.648
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.021
The market value of Apple Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Apple that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Apple's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Apple's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Apple's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Apple's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Apple's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Apple is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Apple's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.