Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 143.65 30 days 155.61  close to zero percent close to 100%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to move over  155.61  or more in 30 days from now is close to zero percent. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between its current price of  143.65  and  155.61  at the end of the 30-day period is about 30.03%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.7468 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE
< 1%
Odds to move over  155.61  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over NYSE
βBeta against NYSE= 0.75 
Overall volatility
= 1.20 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.06)