Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 143.80 30 days 141.46  about 13.58% about 85.88%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to  141.46  or more in 30 days from now is about 85.88%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between  141.46  and its current price of 143.8 at the end of the 30-day period is about 13.21%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple Inc has beta of -0.5225 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding Apple are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, Apple Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.1851 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1851% excess return over NYSE after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
86.0%
Odds to drop to  141.46  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
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 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
  
α
Alpha over NYSE
= 0.19 
βBeta against NYSE=(0.52) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.48 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.34