Apple Probability of Target Price

Apple probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Apple Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Apple time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Apple odds to be computed. Check also Apple Backtesting, Apple Valuation, Apple Correlation, Apple Hype Analysis, Apple Volatility, Apple History as well as Apple Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 119.99 30 days 119.75  about 6.15% more than 94.0%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Apple to drop to $ 119.75  or more in 30 days from now is more than 94.0%. Probability of Apple Inc price to stay between $ 119.75  and its current price of $119.99 at the end of the 30-day period is about 1.75%.
Given the investment horizon of 30 days, Apple has beta of 0.067 . This suggests as returns on market go up, Apple average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding Apple Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Apple Inc has an alpha of 0.15 implying that it can potentially generate 0.15% excess return over NYSE after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
94.0%
Odds to drop to $ 119.75  or more in 30 days
 Apple Price Density 
 
Embed  
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over NYSE
= 0.15 
βBeta against NYSE= 0.07 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.47 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.25