American Airlines Probability of Target Price

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
Refresh Odds

Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 47.45 30 days 48.64  about 19.55% about 80.08%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to stay under $ 48.64  after 30 days from now is about 80.08%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between its current price of $ 47.45  and $ 48.64  at the end of the 30-day period is about 43.91%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines has beta of 0.3855 . This suggests as returns on market go up, American Airlines average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However during bear market, the loss on holding American Airlines Group Inc will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE
80.0%
Odds to stay under $ 48.64  after 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
Embed  
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over NYSE
=(0.01) 
βBeta against NYSE= 0.39 
σ
Overall volatility
= 0.99 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.0051)