American Airlines Probability of Target Price

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 42.93 30 days 45.62  about 10.71% about 89.15%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to move over  45.62  or more in 30 days from now is about 10.71%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between its current price of  42.93  and  45.62  at the end of the 30-day period is about 52.96%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group Inc has beta of -0.7006 . This suggests as returns on benchmark increase, returns on holding American Airlines are expected to decrease at a much smaller rate. During bear market, however, American Airlines Group Inc is likely to outperform the market. Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has an alpha of 0.1974 implying that it can potentially generate 0.1974% excess return over NYSE after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
11.0%
Odds to move over  45.62  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
 
Embed  
 Prices     
Current Price   Target Price   
α
Alpha over NYSE
= 0.20 
βBeta against NYSE=(0.70) 
σ
Overall volatility
= 1.69 
 IrInformation ratio = 0.05