American Airlines Probability of Target Price

American Airlines probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of American Airlines Group Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify American Airlines time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like American Airlines odds to be computed. Check also American Airlines Backtesting, American Airlines Valuation, American Airlines Correlation, American Airlines Hype Analysis, American Airlines Volatility, American Airlines History as well as American Airlines Performance
Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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Odds Analysis

Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
 42.60 30 days 41.70  about 77.72% about 22.1%
Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of American Airlines to drop to  41.70  or more in 30 days from now is about 22.1%. Probability of American Airlines Group price to stay between  41.70  and its current price of 42.6 at the end of the 30-day period is about 14.04%.
Considering 30-days investment horizon, American Airlines Group Inc has beta of -1.0581 . This suggests Additionally American Airlines Group Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE
Odds to drop to  41.70  or more in 30 days
 American Airlines Price Density 
Current Price   Target Price   
Alpha over NYSE
βBeta against NYSE=(1.06) 
Overall volatility
= 2.18 
 IrInformation ratio =(0.15)