Alcoa Probability of Target Price

    Alcoa probability of target price tool provides mechanism to make assumptions about upside and downside potential of Alcoa Inc performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Please specify Alcoa time horizon, a valid symbol (red box) and a target price (blue box) you would like Alcoa odds to be computed. Check also Alcoa Backtesting, Alcoa Valuation, Alcoa Correlation, Alcoa Hype Analysis, Alcoa Volatility, Alcoa History as well as Alcoa Performance
    Investment Horizon     30 Days    Login   to change
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    Odds Analysis

    Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceAbove OddsBelow Odds
     32.92 30 days 27.57  close to 100% near 1%
    Based on normal probability distribution, the odds of Alcoa to drop to  27.57  or more in 30 days from now is near 1%. Probability of Alcoa Inc price to stay between  27.57  and its current price of 32.92 at the end of the 30-day period is about 9.09%.
    Allowing for the 30-days total investment horizon, Alcoa Inc has beta of -1.8933 . This suggests as returns on its benchmark rise, returns on holding Alcoa Inc are expected to decrease by similarly larger amounts. On the other hand, during market turmoils, Alcoa is expected to outperform its benchmark. Additionally Alcoa Inc has a negative alpha implying that the risk taken by holding this equity is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming NYSE
    < 1%
    Odds to drop to  27.57  or more in 30 days
     Alcoa Price Density 
     
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     Prices     
    Current Price   Target Price   
      
    α
    Alpha over NYSE
    =(0.33) 
    βBeta against NYSE=(1.89) 
    σ
    Overall volatility
    = 1.41 
     IrInformation ratio =(0.05)