The Travelers Companies Stock Price Prediction
| TRV Stock | USD 214.07 3.65 1.73% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
69
Oversold | Overbought |
The Travelers Companies stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Travelers Companies shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Travelers Companies' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Travelers Companies and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Travelers Companies' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Travelers Companies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Travelers Companies' stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.162 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.24 | EPS Estimate Current Year 18.28 | EPS Estimate Next Year 20.93 | Wall Street Target Price 231.46 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Travelers Companies based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Travelers stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Travelers Companies over a specific investment horizon. Using Travelers Companies hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Travelers Companies from the perspective of Travelers Companies response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Travelers Companies using Travelers Companies' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Travelers using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Travelers Companies' stock price.
Travelers Companies Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Travelers Companies' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Travelers. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Travelers Companies stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Travelers Companies may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Travelers Companies and may potentially protect profits, hedge Travelers Companies with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 187.0766 | Short Percent 0.0147 | Short Ratio 2.8 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.4 M | 50 Day MA 221.4046 |
The Travelers Companies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Travelers Companies' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Travelers. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Travelers can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around The Travelers Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Travelers Companies' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Travelers Companies.
Travelers Companies Implied Volatility | 71.37 |
Travelers Companies' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of The Travelers Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Travelers Companies' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Travelers Companies stock will not fluctuate a lot when Travelers Companies' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Travelers Companies. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Travelers Companies to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Travelers because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Travelers Companies after-hype prediction price | USD 208.26 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Travelers contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that The Travelers Companies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 4.46% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Travelers Companies trading at USD 214.07, that is roughly USD 9.55 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Travelers Companies' daily price movement you should consider acquiring The Travelers Companies options at the current volatility level of 71.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Travelers |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Travelers Companies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Travelers Companies After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Travelers Companies at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Travelers Companies or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Travelers Companies, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Travelers Companies Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Travelers Companies' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Travelers Companies' historical news coverage. Travelers Companies' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 206.32 and 231.46, respectively. We have considered Travelers Companies' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Travelers Companies is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of The Travelers Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Travelers Companies Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Travelers Companies is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Travelers Companies backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Travelers Companies, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.01 | 1.26 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 13 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
214.07 | 208.26 | 1.03 |
|
Travelers Companies Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April The Travelers Companies is traded for 214.07. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Travelers is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 208.26. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 17.52%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -1.03%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.01%. The volatility of related hype on Travelers Companies is about 111.31%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 214.08. About 85.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Travelers Companies was at this time reported as 109.27. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.82. The Travelers Companies recorded earning per share (EPS) of 13.47. The entity last dividend was issued on the 10th of June 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 12th of May 1998. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Travelers Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Travelers Companies Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Travelers Companies' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Travelers Companies' future price movements. Getting to know how Travelers Companies' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Travelers Companies may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PGR | Progressive Corp | 2.20 | 10 per month | 0.44 | 0.25 | 1.51 | (1.05) | 7.37 | |
| CB | Chubb | (5.29) | 9 per month | 0.57 | 0.06 | 1.18 | (1.00) | 5.20 | |
| CINF | Cincinnati Financial | (0.27) | 8 per month | 1.02 | 0.07 | 2.50 | (1.53) | 7.31 | |
| WRB | W R Berkley | 0.36 | 10 per month | 1.01 | 0.07 | 1.88 | (1.96) | 10.75 | |
| ALL | The Allstate | (4.11) | 10 per month | 0.85 | 0.10 | 1.98 | (1.46) | 4.69 | |
| MKL | Markel | 28.20 | 10 per month | 1.54 | (0.04) | 1.94 | (1.93) | 7.98 | |
| RLI | RLI Corp | 1.39 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.94 | (1.57) | 6.42 | |
| CNA | CNA Financial | 0.01 | 10 per month | 1.33 | (0.01) | 1.36 | (1.97) | 12.05 | |
| WTM | White Mountains Insurance | (11.17) | 9 per month | 1.22 | 0.07 | 2.28 | (2.07) | 5.64 | |
| WRB-PE | W R Berkley | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 0.81 | (1.60) | 3.72 |
Travelers Companies Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Travelers price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Travelers using various technical indicators. When you analyze Travelers charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Travelers Companies Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Travelers Companies stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as The Travelers Companies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Travelers Companies based on analysis of Travelers Companies hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Travelers Companies's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Travelers Companies's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0224 | 0.0196 | 0.0283 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.12 | 1.2 | 0.86 |
Story Coverage note for Travelers Companies
The number of cover stories for Travelers Companies depends on current market conditions and Travelers Companies' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Travelers Companies is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Travelers Companies' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Travelers Companies Short Properties
Travelers Companies' future price predictability will typically decrease when Travelers Companies' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of The Travelers Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Travelers Companies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Travelers Companies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 232.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 83.6 B |
Check out Travelers Companies Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Complementary Tools for Travelers Stock analysis
When running Travelers Companies' price analysis, check to measure Travelers Companies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Travelers Companies is operating at the current time. Most of Travelers Companies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Travelers Companies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Travelers Companies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Travelers Companies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Equity Analysis Research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Portfolio Manager State of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital | |
| Portfolio Analyzer Portfolio analysis module that provides access to portfolio diagnostics and optimization engine | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Content Syndication Quickly integrate customizable finance content to your own investment portal |
Is Travelers Companies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Travelers Companies. If investors know Travelers will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Travelers Companies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.162 | Dividend Share 4 | Earnings Share 13.47 | Revenue Per Share 187.263 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.157 |
The market value of The Travelers Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Travelers that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Travelers Companies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Travelers Companies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Travelers Companies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Travelers Companies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Travelers Companies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Travelers Companies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Travelers Companies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.