Target Stock Price Prediction

TGT Stock  USD 174.67  2.03  1.18%   
The value of RSI of Target's the stock price is slightly above 65. This usually implies that the stock is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Target, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

65

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Target stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Target shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Target's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Target and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Target's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Target, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Target's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.574
EPS Estimate Current Year
8.33
EPS Estimate Next Year
9.14
Wall Street Target Price
183.01
EPS Estimate Current Quarter
2.42
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Target based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Target stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Target over a specific investment horizon. Using Target hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Target from the perspective of Target response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Target using Target's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Target using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Target's stock price.

Target Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Target's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Target. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Target stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Target may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Target and may potentially protect profits, hedge Target with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
133.2306
Short Percent
0.016
Short Ratio
2.12
Shares Short Prior Month
7.2 M
50 Day MA
153.7278

Target Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Target's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Target. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Target can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Target. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Target's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Target.

Target Implied Volatility

    
  26.01  
Target's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Target stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Target's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Target stock will not fluctuate a lot when Target's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Target. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Target to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Target because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Target after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 174.8  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Target contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Target will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.63% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Target trading at USD 174.67, that is roughly USD 2.84 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Target's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Target options at the current volatility level of 26.01%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Target Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Target Stock please use our How to Invest in Target guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Target's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
158.38160.42192.14
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
160.17162.21164.25
Details
34 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
136.19149.66166.12
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.902.022.28
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Target. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Target's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Target's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Target.

Target After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Target at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Target or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Target, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Target Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Target's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Target's historical news coverage. Target's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 172.76 and 176.84, respectively. We have considered Target's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
174.67
172.76
Downside
174.80
After-hype Price
176.84
Upside
Target is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Target is based on 3 months time horizon.

Target Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Target is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Target backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Target, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.37 
2.06
  0.94 
  0.61 
9 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 9 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
174.67
174.80
0.07 
81.10  
Notes

Target Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Target is traded for 174.67. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.94, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.61. Target is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 174.8 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 81.1%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.37%. The volatility of related hype on Target is about 124.1%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 174.06. The company reported the last year's revenue of 107.41 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 4.14 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 26.89 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days.
Check out Target Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Target Stock please use our How to Invest in Target guide.

Target Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Target's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Target's future price movements. Getting to know how Target rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Target may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Target Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Target price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Target using various technical indicators. When you analyze Target charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Target Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Target stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Target, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Target based on analysis of Target hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Target's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Target's related companies.
 2011 2014 2020 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0280.02350.030.0258
Price To Sales Ratio0.50.720.630.64

Story Coverage note for Target

The number of cover stories for Target depends on current market conditions and Target's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Target is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Target's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Target Short Properties

Target's future price predictability will typically decrease when Target's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Target often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Target's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Target's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding462.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.8 B
When determining whether Target is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Target Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Target Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Target Stock:
Check out Target Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more information on how to buy Target Stock please use our How to Invest in Target guide.
Note that the Target information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Target's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Companies Directory module to evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals.

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When running Target's price analysis, check to measure Target's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Target is operating at the current time. Most of Target's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Target's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Target's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Target to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Target's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Target. If investors know Target will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Target listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.574
Dividend Share
4.36
Earnings Share
8.94
Revenue Per Share
232.745
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.017
The market value of Target is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Target that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Target's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Target's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Target's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Target's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Target's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Target is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Target's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.