Selective Insurance Group Stock Price Prediction
| SIGI Stock | USD 103.70 1.29 1.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
46
Oversold | Overbought |
Selective Insurance stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Selective Insurance shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Selective Insurance's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Selective Insurance and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Selective Insurance's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Selective Insurance Group, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Selective Insurance's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.455 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.87 | EPS Estimate Current Year 7.73 | EPS Estimate Next Year 8.64 | Wall Street Target Price 109.57 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Selective Insurance based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Selective stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Selective Insurance over a specific investment horizon. Using Selective Insurance hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Selective Insurance Group from the perspective of Selective Insurance response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Selective Insurance using Selective Insurance's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Selective using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Selective Insurance's stock price.
Selective Insurance Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Selective Insurance's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Selective. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Selective Insurance stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Selective Insurance may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Selective Insurance and may potentially protect profits, hedge Selective Insurance with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 102.1655 | Short Percent 0.0223 | Short Ratio 2.98 | Shares Short Prior Month 1 M | 50 Day MA 103.5698 |
Selective Insurance Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Selective Insurance's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Selective. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Selective can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Selective Insurance Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Selective Insurance's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Selective Insurance.
Selective Insurance Implied Volatility | 27.87 |
Selective Insurance's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Selective Insurance Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Selective Insurance's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Selective Insurance stock will not fluctuate a lot when Selective Insurance's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Selective Insurance. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Selective Insurance to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Selective because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Selective Insurance after-hype prediction price | USD 102.43 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Selective contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Selective Insurance Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.74% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Selective Insurance trading at USD 103.7, that is roughly USD 1.81 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Selective Insurance's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Selective Insurance Group options at the current volatility level of 27.87%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Selective |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Selective Insurance's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Selective Insurance After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Selective Insurance at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Selective Insurance or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Selective Insurance, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Selective Insurance Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Selective Insurance's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Selective Insurance's historical news coverage. Selective Insurance's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 100.84 and 104.02, respectively. We have considered Selective Insurance's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Selective Insurance is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Selective Insurance is based on 3 months time horizon.
Selective Insurance Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Selective Insurance is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Selective Insurance backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Selective Insurance, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.58 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 8 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
103.70 | 102.43 | 0.02 |
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Selective Insurance Hype Timeline
Selective Insurance is at this time traded for 103.70. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Selective is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 102.43 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Selective Insurance is about 4253.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 103.70. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 4.23 B. Net Income was 365.24 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 740.47 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Selective Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Selective Insurance Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Selective Insurance's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Selective Insurance's future price movements. Getting to know how Selective Insurance's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Selective Insurance may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AQUI | Aquagold International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 25.00 | |
| LBHIX | Thrivent High Yield | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.22 | (0.35) | 0.48 | (0.48) | 1.21 | |
| MSTSX | Morningstar Unconstrained Allocation | (0.26) | 3 per month | 0.61 | (0.05) | 0.98 | (1.06) | 3.20 | |
| VIASP | Via Renewables | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.92 | 0.07 | 3.60 | (2.72) | 13.41 | |
| RRTLX | T Rowe Price | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.26 | (0.18) | 0.51 | (0.51) | 1.46 | |
| OSHDF | Oshidori International Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| 70082LAB3 | US70082LAB36 | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 1.52 | (1.89) | 17.58 |
Selective Insurance Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Selective price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Selective using various technical indicators. When you analyze Selective charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Selective Insurance Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Selective Insurance stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Selective Insurance Group, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Selective Insurance based on analysis of Selective Insurance hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Selective Insurance's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Selective Insurance's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0141 | 0.0142 | 0.0138 | 0.0131 | Price To Sales Ratio | 1.46 | 140.9K | 1.43 | 1.35 |
Story Coverage note for Selective Insurance
The number of cover stories for Selective Insurance depends on current market conditions and Selective Insurance's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Selective Insurance is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Selective Insurance's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Selective Insurance Short Properties
Selective Insurance's future price predictability will typically decrease when Selective Insurance's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Selective Insurance Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Selective Insurance's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Selective Insurance's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 820.6 M |
Check out Selective Insurance Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Selective Insurance information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Selective Insurance's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Bond Analysis module to evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios..
Complementary Tools for Selective Stock analysis
When running Selective Insurance's price analysis, check to measure Selective Insurance's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Selective Insurance is operating at the current time. Most of Selective Insurance's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Selective Insurance's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Selective Insurance's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Selective Insurance to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Selective Insurance's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Selective Insurance. If investors know Selective will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Selective Insurance listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.455 | Dividend Share 1.25 | Earnings Share 5.84 | Revenue Per Share 69.801 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.166 |
The market value of Selective Insurance is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Selective that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Selective Insurance's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Selective Insurance's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Selective Insurance's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Selective Insurance's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Selective Insurance's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Selective Insurance is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Selective Insurance's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.