National Western Life Stock Price Prediction

NWLI Stock  USD 490.05  2.52  0.52%   
The relative strength indicator of National Western's the stock price is under 67. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 25th of April 2024. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling National, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

67

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
National Western Life stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of National Western shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of National Western's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of National Western and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from National Western's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with National Western Life, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting National Western's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.839
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.288
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of National Western based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The National stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on National Western over a specific investment horizon. Using National Western hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Western Life from the perspective of National Western response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in National Western. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in National Western to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying National because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

National Western after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 490.09  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out National Western Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National Western's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
488.81488.98539.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
487.61487.78487.95
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
485.76488.28490.79
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as National Western. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against National Western's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, National Western's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in National Western Life.

National Western After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of National Western at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Western or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Western, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

National Western Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting National Western's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Western's historical news coverage. National Western's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 489.92 and 490.26, respectively. We have considered National Western's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
490.05
489.92
Downside
490.09
After-hype Price
490.26
Upside
National Western is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Western Life is based on 3 months time horizon.

National Western Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Western is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Western backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Western, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.02 
0.17
  0.04 
 0.00  
7 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
490.05
490.09
0.01 
9.19  
Notes

National Western Hype Timeline

National Western Life is now traded for 490.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. National is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 490.09 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 9.19%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.02%. The volatility of related hype on National Western is about 351.72%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 490.05. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 698.23 M. Net Income was 94.43 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 261.85 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out National Western Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

National Western Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to National Western's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Western's future price movements. Getting to know how National Western's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Western may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
AELAmerican Equity Investment(0.41)9 per month 0.21 (0.24) 0.58 (0.45) 1.33 
MET-PAMetLife Preferred Stock 0.00 0 per month 0.57 (0.02) 0.95 (0.86) 4.13 
MDWTMidwest Holding 0.21 7 per month 0.18 (0.13) 0.65 (0.54) 1.45 
PUKPrudential Public Limited(0.16)10 per month 0.00 (0.11) 2.40 (2.78) 8.27 
CNOCNO Financial Group(0.21)12 per month 0.00 (0.09) 1.95 (2.31) 6.70 
FGFG Annuities Life 0.27 9 per month 0.00 (0.1) 3.81 (4.40) 15.55 
AEL-PBAmerican Equity Investment 0.00 0 per month 0.54 (0.13) 1.03 (0.94) 3.18 
VERYVericity(0.01)1 per month 0.88 (0.08) 0.62 (0.62) 10.99 
BHFAMBrighthouse Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.58 (0.06) 1.75 (2.35) 6.40 
JXNJackson Financial(0.27)11 per month 1.06  0.24  3.70 (2.65) 8.65 
BHFAPBrighthouse Financial 0.00 0 per month 1.44 (0.07) 1.42 (2.33) 5.29 
MET-PEMetLife Preferred Stock 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.20) 0.70 (0.82) 3.28 

National Western Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About National Western Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of National Western stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as National Western Life, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of National Western based on analysis of National Western hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to National Western's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to National Western's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0016780.0012827.46E-47.09E-4
Price To Sales Ratio0.921.782.452.57

Story Coverage note for National Western

The number of cover stories for National Western depends on current market conditions and National Western's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Western is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Western's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

National Western Short Properties

National Western's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Western's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Western Life often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Western's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Western's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding3.5 M
Dividends Paid1.3 M
Cash And Short Term Investments7.6 B
When determining whether National Western Life offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of National Western's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of National Western Life Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on National Western Life Stock:
Check out National Western Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.

Complementary Tools for National Stock analysis

When running National Western's price analysis, check to measure National Western's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy National Western is operating at the current time. Most of National Western's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of National Western's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move National Western's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of National Western to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is National Western's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of National Western. If investors know National will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about National Western listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.839
Dividend Share
0.36
Earnings Share
26.7
Revenue Per Share
193.441
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.288
The market value of National Western Life is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of National that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of National Western's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is National Western's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because National Western's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect National Western's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between National Western's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if National Western is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, National Western's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.