Novagold Resources Stock Price Prediction

NG Stock  USD 3.00  0.24  8.70%   
As of 29th of March 2024, the relative strength momentum indicator of NovaGold Resources' share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling NovaGold Resources, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

49

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
NovaGold Resources stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of NovaGold Resources shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of NovaGold Resources' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of NovaGold Resources and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from NovaGold Resources' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with NovaGold Resources, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting NovaGold Resources' stock price prediction:
EPS Estimate Current Year
(0.08)
Wall Street Target Price
8.5
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of NovaGold Resources based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The NovaGold stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on NovaGold Resources over a specific investment horizon. Using NovaGold Resources hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NovaGold Resources from the perspective of NovaGold Resources response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards NovaGold Resources using NovaGold Resources' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards NovaGold using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of NovaGold Resources' stock price.

NovaGold Resources Implied Volatility

    
  79.96  
NovaGold Resources' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of NovaGold Resources stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if NovaGold Resources' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that NovaGold Resources stock will not fluctuate a lot when NovaGold Resources' options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in NovaGold Resources. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in NovaGold Resources to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying NovaGold because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

NovaGold Resources after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 3.0  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in NovaGold Stock please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NovaGold Resources' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.132.696.37
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
0.062.906.58
Details
3 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
8.809.6710.73
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.02-0.02-0.02
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as NovaGold Resources. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against NovaGold Resources' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, NovaGold Resources' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in NovaGold Resources.

NovaGold Resources After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of NovaGold Resources at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NovaGold Resources or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NovaGold Resources, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

NovaGold Resources Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting NovaGold Resources' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NovaGold Resources' historical news coverage. NovaGold Resources' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 6.68, respectively. We have considered NovaGold Resources' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
3.00
3.00
After-hype Price
6.68
Upside
NovaGold Resources is risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NovaGold Resources is based on 3 months time horizon.

NovaGold Resources Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NovaGold Resources is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NovaGold Resources backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NovaGold Resources, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.32 
3.70
  0.04 
  0.03 
8 Events / Month
6 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
3.00
3.00
0.00 
3,364  
Notes

NovaGold Resources Hype Timeline

As of March 29, 2024 NovaGold Resources is listed for 3.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.04, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. NovaGold is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.32%. %. The volatility of related hype on NovaGold Resources is about 4553.85%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.03. About 26.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.14. NovaGold Resources had not issued any dividends in recent years. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in NovaGold Stock please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.

NovaGold Resources Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to NovaGold Resources' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NovaGold Resources' future price movements. Getting to know how NovaGold Resources rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NovaGold Resources may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
PSOPearson PLC ADR(0.17)12 per month 0.90 (0) 2.12 (1.57) 6.40 
INKTMink Therapeutics 0.01 7 per month 0.00 (0.06) 5.81 (7.00) 21.23 
GNFTGenfit(0.07)4 per month 0.00 (0.05) 5.21 (5.72) 18.30 
RELXRelx PLC ADR 0.22 11 per month 0.89  0.02  2.01 (1.59) 4.65 
WLYBJohn Wiley Sons 0.69 6 per month 1.36  0.09  3.06 (2.89) 14.63 
ABCLAbcellera BiologicsInc 0.02 8 per month 0.00 (0.13) 5.08 (6.33) 16.27 
ACCOAcco Brands(0.07)7 per month 2.82 (0.05) 3.07 (3.44) 17.28 
LINCLincoln Educational Services 0.02 8 per month 2.03 (0.01) 5.34 (3.56) 13.66 

NovaGold Resources Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine NovaGold price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NovaGold using various technical indicators. When you analyze NovaGold charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About NovaGold Resources Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of NovaGold Resources stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as NovaGold Resources, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of NovaGold Resources based on analysis of NovaGold Resources hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to NovaGold Resources's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to NovaGold Resources's related companies.
 2023 2024 (projected)
Fixed Asset Turnover7.46E-47.08E-4
Current Ratio29.3130.78

Story Coverage note for NovaGold Resources

The number of cover stories for NovaGold Resources depends on current market conditions and NovaGold Resources' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NovaGold Resources is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NovaGold Resources' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

NovaGold Resources Short Properties

NovaGold Resources' future price predictability will typically decrease when NovaGold Resources' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NovaGold Resources often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NovaGold Resources' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NovaGold Resources' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding334.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments125.7 M
When determining whether NovaGold Resources is a strong investment it is important to analyze NovaGold Resources' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact NovaGold Resources' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding NovaGold Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out NovaGold Resources Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For more detail on how to invest in NovaGold Stock please use our How to Invest in NovaGold Resources guide.
Note that the NovaGold Resources information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other NovaGold Resources' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Global Correlations module to find global opportunities by holding instruments from different markets.

Complementary Tools for NovaGold Stock analysis

When running NovaGold Resources' price analysis, check to measure NovaGold Resources' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NovaGold Resources is operating at the current time. Most of NovaGold Resources' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NovaGold Resources' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NovaGold Resources' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NovaGold Resources to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is NovaGold Resources' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of NovaGold Resources. If investors know NovaGold will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about NovaGold Resources listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share
(0.14)
Return On Assets
(0.09)
Return On Equity
(4.32)
The market value of NovaGold Resources is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of NovaGold that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of NovaGold Resources' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is NovaGold Resources' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because NovaGold Resources' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect NovaGold Resources' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between NovaGold Resources' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if NovaGold Resources is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, NovaGold Resources' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.