Marsh Mclennan Companies Stock Price Prediction
| MMC Stock | USD 197.32 0.75 0.38% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
49
Oversold | Overbought |
Marsh McLennan Companies stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Marsh McLennan shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Marsh McLennan's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Marsh McLennan and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Marsh McLennan's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Marsh McLennan Companies, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Marsh McLennan's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.643 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.81 | EPS Estimate Current Year 8.61 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.43 | Wall Street Target Price 207.95 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Marsh McLennan based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Marsh stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Marsh McLennan over a specific investment horizon. Using Marsh McLennan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marsh McLennan Companies from the perspective of Marsh McLennan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Marsh McLennan using Marsh McLennan's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Marsh using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Marsh McLennan's stock price.
Marsh McLennan Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Marsh McLennan's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Marsh. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Marsh McLennan stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Marsh McLennan may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Marsh McLennan and may potentially protect profits, hedge Marsh McLennan with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 194.9325 | Short Percent 0.0091 | Short Ratio 2.42 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.8 M | 50 Day MA 202.1116 |
Marsh McLennan Companies Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Marsh McLennan's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Marsh. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Marsh can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Marsh McLennan Companies. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Marsh McLennan's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Marsh McLennan.
Marsh McLennan Implied Volatility | 34.63 |
Marsh McLennan's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Marsh McLennan Companies stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Marsh McLennan's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Marsh McLennan stock will not fluctuate a lot when Marsh McLennan's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Marsh McLennan. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Marsh McLennan to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Marsh because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Marsh McLennan after-hype prediction price | USD 197.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Marsh contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Marsh McLennan Companies will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.16% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Marsh McLennan trading at USD 197.32, that is roughly USD 4.27 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Marsh McLennan's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Marsh McLennan Companies options at the current volatility level of 34.63%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Marsh |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marsh McLennan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Marsh McLennan After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Marsh McLennan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marsh McLennan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Marsh McLennan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Marsh McLennan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Marsh McLennan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marsh McLennan's historical news coverage. Marsh McLennan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 196.57 and 198.45, respectively. We have considered Marsh McLennan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Marsh McLennan is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marsh McLennan Companies is based on 3 months time horizon.
Marsh McLennan Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marsh McLennan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marsh McLennan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marsh McLennan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.94 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
197.32 | 197.51 | 0.01 |
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Marsh McLennan Hype Timeline
On the 15th of April 2024 Marsh McLennan Companies is traded for 197.32. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.06. Marsh is expected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 197.51. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. The volatility of related hype on Marsh McLennan is about 44.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 197.26. About 90.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 2.43. Marsh McLennan Companies recorded earning per share (EPS) of 7.53. The entity last dividend was issued on the 3rd of April 2024. The firm had 2:1 split on the 1st of July 2002. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Marsh McLennan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Marsh McLennan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Marsh McLennan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marsh McLennan's future price movements. Getting to know how Marsh McLennan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marsh McLennan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GOCO | GoHealth | 0.53 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.71 | (6.39) | 19.32 | |
| TIRX | Tian Ruixiang Holdings | 0.09 | 4 per month | 5.59 | (0.0002) | 8.89 | (9.43) | 65.20 | |
| HUIZ | Huize HoldingLtd | (0.06) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 12.31 | (9.52) | 26.54 | |
| CRVL | CorVel Corp | (6.56) | 8 per month | 1.67 | (0.02) | 3.51 | (2.76) | 8.09 | |
| ERIE | Erie Indemnity | (9.46) | 10 per month | 0.99 | 0.1 | 2.04 | (1.62) | 13.03 | |
| CRD-B | Crawford Company | 0.46 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 5.95 | (6.84) | 27.57 | |
| SLQT | Selectquote | 0.05 | 9 per month | 4.11 | 0.09 | 9.09 | (6.50) | 27.96 |
Marsh McLennan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Marsh price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marsh using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marsh charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Marsh McLennan Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Marsh McLennan stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Marsh McLennan Companies, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Marsh McLennan based on analysis of Marsh McLennan hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Marsh McLennan's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Marsh McLennan's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0116 | 0.0138 | 0.0139 | 0.0273 | Price To Sales Ratio | 4.45 | 3.99 | 4.12 | 4.32 |
Story Coverage note for Marsh McLennan
The number of cover stories for Marsh McLennan depends on current market conditions and Marsh McLennan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marsh McLennan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marsh McLennan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Marsh McLennan Short Properties
Marsh McLennan's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marsh McLennan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marsh McLennan Companies often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marsh McLennan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marsh McLennan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 499 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
Check out Marsh McLennan Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Manager module to state of the art Portfolio Manager to monitor and improve performance of your invested capital.
Complementary Tools for Marsh Stock analysis
When running Marsh McLennan's price analysis, check to measure Marsh McLennan's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marsh McLennan is operating at the current time. Most of Marsh McLennan's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marsh McLennan's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marsh McLennan's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marsh McLennan to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Marsh McLennan's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Marsh McLennan. If investors know Marsh will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Marsh McLennan listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.643 | Dividend Share 2.72 | Earnings Share 7.53 | Revenue Per Share 46.024 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.106 |
The market value of Marsh McLennan Companies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Marsh that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Marsh McLennan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Marsh McLennan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Marsh McLennan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Marsh McLennan's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Marsh McLennan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Marsh McLennan is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Marsh McLennan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.