Lululemon Athletica Stock Price Prediction
| LULU Stock | USD 360.00 4.59 1.26% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
21
Oversold | Overbought |
Lululemon Athletica stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lululemon Athletica shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lululemon Athletica's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lululemon Athletica and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lululemon Athletica's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lululemon Athletica, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Lululemon Athletica's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.639 | EPS Estimate Current Year 12.46 | EPS Estimate Next Year 14.13 | Wall Street Target Price 466.11 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 5 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lululemon Athletica based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lululemon stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lululemon Athletica over a specific investment horizon. Using Lululemon Athletica hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lululemon Athletica from the perspective of Lululemon Athletica response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lululemon Athletica using Lululemon Athletica's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lululemon using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lululemon Athletica's stock price.
Lululemon Athletica Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lululemon Athletica's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lululemon. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lululemon Athletica stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lululemon Athletica may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lululemon Athletica and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lululemon Athletica with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 420.2416 | Short Percent 0.0401 | Short Ratio 1.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.1 M | 50 Day MA 415.7824 |
Lululemon Athletica Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lululemon Athletica's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lululemon. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lululemon can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lululemon Athletica. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lululemon Athletica's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lululemon Athletica.
Lululemon Athletica Implied Volatility | 47.13 |
Lululemon Athletica's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lululemon Athletica stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lululemon Athletica's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lululemon Athletica stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lululemon Athletica's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lululemon Athletica. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lululemon Athletica to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lululemon because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lululemon Athletica after-hype prediction price | USD 365.73 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lululemon contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lululemon Athletica will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.95% per day over the life of the 2024-04-26 option contract. With Lululemon Athletica trading at USD 360.0, that is roughly USD 10.6 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lululemon Athletica's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lululemon Athletica options at the current volatility level of 47.13%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lululemon |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lululemon Athletica's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lululemon Athletica After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lululemon Athletica at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lululemon Athletica or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lululemon Athletica, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lululemon Athletica Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lululemon Athletica's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lululemon Athletica's historical news coverage. Lululemon Athletica's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 363.11 and 368.35, respectively. We have considered Lululemon Athletica's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lululemon Athletica is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lululemon Athletica is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lululemon Athletica Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lululemon Athletica is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lululemon Athletica backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lululemon Athletica, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 2.60 | 1.12 | 0.38 | 9 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
360.00 | 365.73 | 0.31 |
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Lululemon Athletica Hype Timeline
Lululemon Athletica is now traded for 360.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.12, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.38. Lululemon is expected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 365.73 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 90.91%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.31%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Lululemon Athletica is about 267.12%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 359.62. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 9.62 B. Net Income was 1.55 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.49 B. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next expected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Lululemon Athletica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lululemon Athletica Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lululemon Athletica's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lululemon Athletica's future price movements. Getting to know how Lululemon Athletica's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lululemon Athletica may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AEO | American Eagle Outfitters | (0.23) | 10 per month | 1.77 | 0.05 | 3.82 | (3.10) | 8.73 | |
| ANF | Abercrombie Fitch | (4.28) | 9 per month | 3.49 | 0.03 | 4.49 | (5.34) | 14.82 | |
| URBN | Urban Outfitters | (0.37) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 3.15 | (3.62) | 16.62 | |
| FL | Foot Locker | (0.65) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.65 | (4.77) | 35.53 | |
| PLCE | Childrens Place | 0.17 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 16.46 | (16.45) | 99.19 | |
| GPS | Gap Inc | (0.48) | 10 per month | 2.28 | 0.02 | 4.93 | (3.87) | 12.81 |
Lululemon Athletica Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lululemon price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lululemon using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lululemon charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Lululemon Athletica Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lululemon Athletica stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lululemon Athletica, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lululemon Athletica based on analysis of Lululemon Athletica hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lululemon Athletica's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lululemon Athletica's related companies. | 2011 | 2015 | 2020 | 2024 (projected) | Days Sales Outstanding | 2.79 | 3.97 | 4.73 | 6.28 | PTB Ratio | 8.66 | 22.22 | 14.43 | 16.98 |
Story Coverage note for Lululemon Athletica
The number of cover stories for Lululemon Athletica depends on current market conditions and Lululemon Athletica's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lululemon Athletica is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lululemon Athletica's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lululemon Athletica Short Properties
Lululemon Athletica's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lululemon Athletica's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lululemon Athletica often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lululemon Athletica's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lululemon Athletica's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 127.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
Check out Lululemon Athletica Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Lululemon Stock please use our How to Invest in Lululemon Athletica guide.You can also try the Analyst Advice module to analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories.
Complementary Tools for Lululemon Stock analysis
When running Lululemon Athletica's price analysis, check to measure Lululemon Athletica's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lululemon Athletica is operating at the current time. Most of Lululemon Athletica's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lululemon Athletica's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lululemon Athletica's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lululemon Athletica to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lululemon Athletica's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lululemon Athletica. If investors know Lululemon will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lululemon Athletica listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 4.639 | Earnings Share 12.21 | Revenue Per Share 75.906 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.156 | Return On Assets 0.2173 |
The market value of Lululemon Athletica is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lululemon that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lululemon Athletica's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lululemon Athletica's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lululemon Athletica's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lululemon Athletica's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lululemon Athletica's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lululemon Athletica is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lululemon Athletica's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.