Lincoln National Stock Price Prediction
| LNC Stock | USD 28.73 0.47 1.66% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Lincoln National stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Lincoln National shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Lincoln National's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Lincoln National and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Lincoln National's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Lincoln National, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Lincoln National's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.45 | EPS Estimate Current Year 6.53 | EPS Estimate Next Year 7.63 | Wall Street Target Price 30.11 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Lincoln National based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Lincoln stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Lincoln National over a specific investment horizon. Using Lincoln National hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lincoln National from the perspective of Lincoln National response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Lincoln National using Lincoln National's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Lincoln using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Lincoln National's stock price.
Lincoln National Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Lincoln National's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Lincoln. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Lincoln National stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Lincoln National may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Lincoln National and may potentially protect profits, hedge Lincoln National with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 26.1876 | Short Percent 0.0248 | Short Ratio 1.76 | Shares Short Prior Month 3.6 M | 50 Day MA 28.2188 |
Lincoln National Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Lincoln National's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Lincoln. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Lincoln can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Lincoln National. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Lincoln National's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Lincoln National.
Lincoln National Implied Volatility | 46.46 |
Lincoln National's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Lincoln National stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Lincoln National's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Lincoln National stock will not fluctuate a lot when Lincoln National's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Lincoln National. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Lincoln National to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Lincoln because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Lincoln National after-hype prediction price | USD 28.2 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Lincoln contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Lincoln National will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 2.9% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Lincoln National trading at USD 28.73, that is roughly USD 0.83 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Lincoln National's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Lincoln National options at the current volatility level of 46.46%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Lincoln |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Lincoln National's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Lincoln National After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lincoln National at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lincoln National or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lincoln National, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lincoln National Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lincoln National's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lincoln National's historical news coverage. Lincoln National's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 25.90 and 30.50, respectively. We have considered Lincoln National's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lincoln National is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lincoln National is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lincoln National Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lincoln National is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lincoln National backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lincoln National, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.07 | 2.30 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 7 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
28.73 | 28.20 | 0.21 |
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Lincoln National Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Lincoln National is traded for 28.73. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Lincoln is estimated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 28.2. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.21%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Lincoln National is about 202.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 28.65. About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.81. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Lincoln National has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.24. The entity recorded a loss per share of 4.92. The firm last dividend was issued on the 9th of April 2024. Lincoln National had 2:1 split on the 22nd of June 1999. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Lincoln National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Lincoln National Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lincoln National's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lincoln National's future price movements. Getting to know how Lincoln National's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lincoln National may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| JXN | Jackson Financial | (2.27) | 5 per month | 1.11 | 0.22 | 3.44 | (2.65) | 8.65 | |
| BHFAP | Brighthouse Financial | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | (0.06) | 1.42 | (2.33) | 5.29 |
Lincoln National Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lincoln price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lincoln using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lincoln charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Lincoln National Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Lincoln National stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Lincoln National, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Lincoln National based on analysis of Lincoln National hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Lincoln National's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Lincoln National's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.059 | 0.0846 | 0.0889 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.28 | 0.33 | 0.31 |
Story Coverage note for Lincoln National
The number of cover stories for Lincoln National depends on current market conditions and Lincoln National's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lincoln National is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lincoln National's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Lincoln National Short Properties
Lincoln National's future price predictability will typically decrease when Lincoln National's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lincoln National often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lincoln National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lincoln National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 169.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23 B |
Check out Lincoln National Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lincoln Stock refer to our How to Trade Lincoln Stock guide.You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
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When running Lincoln National's price analysis, check to measure Lincoln National's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Lincoln National is operating at the current time. Most of Lincoln National's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Lincoln National's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Lincoln National's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Lincoln National to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Lincoln National's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lincoln National. If investors know Lincoln will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Lincoln National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.39) | Dividend Share 1.8 | Earnings Share (4.92) | Revenue Per Share 68.677 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.82) |
The market value of Lincoln National is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Lincoln that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Lincoln National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Lincoln National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Lincoln National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Lincoln National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Lincoln National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Lincoln National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Lincoln National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.