Hershey Co Stock Price Prediction

HSY Stock  USD 193.71  2.81  1.47%   
At this time, The relative strength index (RSI) of Hershey's share price is at 56. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Hershey, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

56

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Hershey stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hershey shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hershey's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hershey and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hershey's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hershey Co, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hershey's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.12)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
3.02
EPS Estimate Current Year
9.59
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.21
Wall Street Target Price
212.57
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hershey based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Hershey stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hershey over a specific investment horizon. Using Hershey hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hershey Co from the perspective of Hershey response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hershey using Hershey's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hershey using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hershey's stock price.

Hershey Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Hershey's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hershey. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hershey stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Hershey may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hershey and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hershey with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
206.6894
Short Percent
0.0213
Short Ratio
1.42
Shares Short Prior Month
2.8 M
50 Day MA
193.221

Hershey Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Hershey's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hershey. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hershey can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hershey Co. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hershey's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hershey.

Hershey Implied Volatility

    
  27.38  
Hershey's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hershey Co stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hershey's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hershey stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hershey's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Hershey. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hershey to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hershey because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Hershey after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 194.05  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hershey contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hershey Co will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.71% per day over the life of the 2024-03-28 option contract. With Hershey trading at USD 193.71, that is roughly USD 3.32 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hershey's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hershey Co options at the current volatility level of 27.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Hershey Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hershey's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
174.34217.37218.91
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
189.12190.66192.20
Details
24 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
219.53241.24267.78
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
2.562.793.09
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hershey. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hershey's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hershey's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hershey.

Hershey After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hershey at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hershey or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hershey, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hershey Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hershey's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hershey's historical news coverage. Hershey's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 192.51 and 195.59, respectively. We have considered Hershey's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
193.71
192.51
Downside
194.05
After-hype Price
195.59
Upside
Hershey is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hershey is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hershey Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hershey is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hershey backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hershey, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.09 
1.54
  0.38 
  0.08 
10 Events / Month
3 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
193.71
194.05
0.18 
36.07  
Notes

Hershey Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Hershey is traded for 193.71. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.38, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.08. Hershey is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 194.05 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 36.07%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.09%. The volatility of related hype on Hershey is about 182.9%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 193.63. The company reported the last year's revenue of 11.16 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 1.86 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 4.5 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Hershey Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Hershey Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hershey's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hershey's future price movements. Getting to know how Hershey rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hershey may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Hershey Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hershey price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hershey using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hershey charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Hershey Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Hershey stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hershey Co, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hershey based on analysis of Hershey hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hershey's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hershey's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Price Earnings Ratio27.0728.9420.519.05
Short Term Coverage Ratios2.211.612.272.15

Story Coverage note for Hershey

The number of cover stories for Hershey depends on current market conditions and Hershey's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hershey is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hershey's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Hershey Short Properties

Hershey's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hershey's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hershey Co often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hershey's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hershey's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding205.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments401.9 M
When determining whether Hershey offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Hershey's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Hershey Co Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Hershey Co Stock:
Check out Hershey Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.

Complementary Tools for Hershey Stock analysis

When running Hershey's price analysis, check to measure Hershey's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Hershey is operating at the current time. Most of Hershey's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Hershey's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Hershey's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Hershey to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Hershey's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hershey. If investors know Hershey will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hershey listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.12)
Dividend Share
4.456
Earnings Share
9.06
Revenue Per Share
54.533
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.002
The market value of Hershey is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hershey that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hershey's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hershey's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hershey's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hershey's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hershey's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hershey is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hershey's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.