Hilton Worldwide Holdings Stock Price Prediction

HLT Stock  USD 214.34  1.30  0.61%   
The relative strength index (RSI) of Hilton Worldwide's share price is above 70 at this time. This usually indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Hilton, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

70

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Hilton Worldwide Holdings stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Hilton Worldwide shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Hilton Worldwide's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Hilton Worldwide and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Hilton Worldwide's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Hilton Worldwide Holdings, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Hilton Worldwide's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.53)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
1.42
EPS Estimate Current Year
7.11
EPS Estimate Next Year
8.28
Wall Street Target Price
209.83
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Hilton Worldwide based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Hilton stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Hilton Worldwide over a specific investment horizon. Using Hilton Worldwide hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings from the perspective of Hilton Worldwide response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Hilton Worldwide using Hilton Worldwide's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Hilton using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Hilton Worldwide's stock price.

Hilton Worldwide Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Hilton Worldwide's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Hilton. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Hilton Worldwide stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Hilton Worldwide may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Hilton Worldwide and may potentially protect profits, hedge Hilton Worldwide with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
167.4384
Short Percent
0.0131
Short Ratio
1.98
Shares Short Prior Month
2.6 M
50 Day MA
198.7962

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Hilton Worldwide's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Hilton. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Hilton can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Hilton Worldwide Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Hilton Worldwide's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Hilton Worldwide.

Hilton Worldwide Implied Volatility

    
  18.94  
Hilton Worldwide's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Hilton Worldwide Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Hilton Worldwide's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Hilton Worldwide stock will not fluctuate a lot when Hilton Worldwide's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Hilton Worldwide. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Hilton Worldwide to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Hilton because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Hilton Worldwide after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 214.34  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Hilton contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Hilton Worldwide Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.18% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Hilton Worldwide trading at USD 214.34, that is roughly USD 2.54 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Hilton Worldwide's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Hilton Worldwide Holdings options at the current volatility level of 18.94%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Hilton Worldwide Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hilton Worldwide's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
192.91242.38243.24
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
212.64213.50214.36
Details
19 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
149.81164.63182.74
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
1.381.421.44
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Hilton Worldwide. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Hilton Worldwide's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Hilton Worldwide's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Hilton Worldwide Holdings.

Hilton Worldwide After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Hilton Worldwide at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Hilton Worldwide or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Hilton Worldwide, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Hilton Worldwide Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Hilton Worldwide's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Hilton Worldwide's historical news coverage. Hilton Worldwide's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 213.48 and 215.20, respectively. We have considered Hilton Worldwide's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
214.34
213.48
Downside
214.34
After-hype Price
215.20
Upside
Hilton Worldwide is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Hilton Worldwide Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.

Hilton Worldwide Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Hilton Worldwide is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Hilton Worldwide backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Hilton Worldwide, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.27 
0.87
  0.52 
  0.22 
8 Events / Month
7 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
214.34
214.34
0.00 
45.31  
Notes

Hilton Worldwide Hype Timeline

On the 28th of March Hilton Worldwide Holdings is traded for 214.34. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.52, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.22. Hilton is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 45.31%. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.27%. %. The volatility of related hype on Hilton Worldwide is about 106.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 214.56. About 98.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.11. Hilton Worldwide Holdings last dividend was issued on the 22nd of February 2024. The entity had 1000:2052 split on the 4th of January 2017. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next expected press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Hilton Worldwide Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Hilton Worldwide Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Hilton Worldwide's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Hilton Worldwide's future price movements. Getting to know how Hilton Worldwide rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Hilton Worldwide may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MCRIMonarch Casino Resort(1.88)8 per month 1.08  0.01  2.07 (2.28) 4.78 
BHBiglari Holdings 8.09 9 per month 1.89  0.02  6.85 (3.10) 13.78 
EMSmart Share Global 0.01 8 per month 4.01  0.07  10.64 (8.00) 24.05 
SGSweetgreen(0.17)9 per month 2.33  0.25  7.12 (5.52) 32.98 
WWWW International 0.07 12 per month 0.00 (0.31) 11.09 (12.55) 33.78 
DKNGDraftKings 0.57 11 per month 2.64  0.11  4.16 (4.74) 14.33 
DNUTKrispy Kreme 0.22 10 per month 2.72  0  2.41 (3.89) 9.06 
MLCOMelco Resorts Entertainment(0.38)6 per month 0.00 (0.13) 5.53 (6.42) 16.69 

Hilton Worldwide Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Hilton price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Hilton using various technical indicators. When you analyze Hilton charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Hilton Worldwide Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Hilton Worldwide stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Hilton Worldwide Holdings, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Hilton Worldwide based on analysis of Hilton Worldwide hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Hilton Worldwide's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Hilton Worldwide's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.003540.0033120.003146
Price To Sales Ratio7.524.662.44

Story Coverage note for Hilton Worldwide

The number of cover stories for Hilton Worldwide depends on current market conditions and Hilton Worldwide's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Hilton Worldwide is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Hilton Worldwide's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Hilton Worldwide Short Properties

Hilton Worldwide's future price predictability will typically decrease when Hilton Worldwide's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Hilton Worldwide Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Hilton Worldwide's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hilton Worldwide's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding264 M
Cash And Short Term Investments800 M
When determining whether Hilton Worldwide Holdings is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Hilton Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Hilton Worldwide Holdings Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Hilton Worldwide Holdings Stock:
Check out Hilton Worldwide Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

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Is Hilton Worldwide's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hilton Worldwide. If investors know Hilton will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hilton Worldwide listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.53)
Dividend Share
0.6
Earnings Share
4.32
Revenue Per Share
16.824
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.071
The market value of Hilton Worldwide Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hilton that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hilton Worldwide's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hilton Worldwide's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hilton Worldwide's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hilton Worldwide's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hilton Worldwide's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hilton Worldwide is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hilton Worldwide's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.