Federal Signal Stock Price Prediction
| FSS Stock | USD 83.33 0.43 0.51% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
55
Oversold | Overbought |
Federal Signal stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Federal Signal shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Federal Signal's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Federal Signal and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Federal Signal's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Federal Signal, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Federal Signal's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.314 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.56 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.34 | Wall Street Target Price 83 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Federal Signal based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Federal stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Federal Signal over a specific investment horizon. Using Federal Signal hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Federal Signal from the perspective of Federal Signal response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Federal Signal using Federal Signal's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Federal using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Federal Signal's stock price.
Federal Signal Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Federal Signal's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Federal. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Federal Signal stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Federal Signal may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Federal Signal and may potentially protect profits, hedge Federal Signal with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 69.8433 | Short Percent 0.0156 | Short Ratio 1.59 | Shares Short Prior Month 752 K | 50 Day MA 81.7604 |
Federal Signal Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Federal Signal's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Federal. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Federal can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Federal Signal. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Federal Signal's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Federal Signal.
Federal Signal Implied Volatility | 0.0 |
Federal Signal's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Federal Signal stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Federal Signal's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Federal Signal stock will not fluctuate a lot when Federal Signal's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Federal Signal. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Federal Signal to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Federal because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Federal Signal after-hype prediction price | USD 83.39 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Federal contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Federal Signal will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Federal Signal trading at USD 83.33, that is roughly USD 0.0 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Federal Signal's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Federal Signal options at the current volatility level of 0.0%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Federal |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Federal Signal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Federal Signal After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Federal Signal at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Federal Signal or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Federal Signal, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Federal Signal Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Federal Signal's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Federal Signal's historical news coverage. Federal Signal's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 81.97 and 84.81, respectively. We have considered Federal Signal's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Federal Signal is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Federal Signal is based on 3 months time horizon.
Federal Signal Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Federal Signal is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Federal Signal backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Federal Signal, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.14 | 1.43 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 11 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
83.33 | 83.39 | 0.07 |
|
Federal Signal Hype Timeline
On the 25th of April Federal Signal is traded for 83.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.06, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Federal is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 83.39 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.07%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.14%. The volatility of related hype on Federal Signal is about 1906.67%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 83.34. The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.72 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 157.4 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 344.9 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Federal Signal Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Federal Signal's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Federal Signal's future price movements. Getting to know how Federal Signal's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Federal Signal may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| ERII | Energy Recovery | (0.07) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.15 | (4.39) | 14.83 | |
| CECO | CECO Environmental Corp | 0.17 | 7 per month | 3.69 | 0.1 | 4.70 | (2.96) | 25.67 | |
| SCWO | 374Water Common Stock | (0.06) | 4 per month | 5.05 | 0.03 | 8.94 | (6.50) | 35.19 | |
| COSLF | CO2 Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| ZWS | Zurn Elkay Water | 0.48 | 11 per month | 1.53 | 0.07 | 2.47 | (2.78) | 8.52 | |
| FTEK | Fuel Tech | (0.07) | 6 per month | 2.16 | 0.05 | 4.90 | (3.54) | 13.46 |
Federal Signal Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Federal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Federal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Federal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Federal Signal Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Federal Signal stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Federal Signal, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Federal Signal based on analysis of Federal Signal hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Federal Signal's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Federal Signal's related companies. | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.008349 | 0.007754 | 0.005109 | 0.004854 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.17 | 1.96 | 2.7 | 2.84 |
Story Coverage note for Federal Signal
The number of cover stories for Federal Signal depends on current market conditions and Federal Signal's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Federal Signal is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Federal Signal's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
View All Premium Stories
Federal Signal Short Properties
Federal Signal's future price predictability will typically decrease when Federal Signal's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Federal Signal often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Federal Signal's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Federal Signal's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 61.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 61 M |
Check out Federal Signal Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Federal Stock please use our How to Invest in Federal Signal guide.You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for Federal Stock analysis
When running Federal Signal's price analysis, check to measure Federal Signal's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Federal Signal is operating at the current time. Most of Federal Signal's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Federal Signal's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Federal Signal's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Federal Signal to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| ETF Categories List of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments | |
| Aroon Oscillator Analyze current equity momentum using Aroon Oscillator and other momentum ratios | |
| Watchlist Optimization Optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm | |
| Portfolio File Import Quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format | |
| Portfolio Backtesting Avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios | |
| Portfolio Diagnostics Use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings | |
| Positions Ratings Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Fundamentals Comparison Compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities | |
| My Watchlist Analysis Analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like |
Is Federal Signal's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Federal Signal. If investors know Federal will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Federal Signal listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.314 | Dividend Share 0.39 | Earnings Share 2.56 | Revenue Per Share 28.381 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.145 |
The market value of Federal Signal is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Federal that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Federal Signal's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Federal Signal's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Federal Signal's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Federal Signal's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Federal Signal's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Federal Signal is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Federal Signal's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.