Firstenergy Stock Price Prediction

FE Stock  USD 38.62  0.16  0.42%   
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of FirstEnergy's share price is at 57. This usually indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling FirstEnergy, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

57

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
FirstEnergy stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of FirstEnergy shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of FirstEnergy's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of FirstEnergy and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from FirstEnergy's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with FirstEnergy, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting FirstEnergy's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.196
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.68
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.69
EPS Estimate Next Year
2.85
Wall Street Target Price
40.71
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of FirstEnergy based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The FirstEnergy stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on FirstEnergy over a specific investment horizon. Using FirstEnergy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of FirstEnergy from the perspective of FirstEnergy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards FirstEnergy using FirstEnergy's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards FirstEnergy using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of FirstEnergy's stock price.

FirstEnergy Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in FirstEnergy's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards FirstEnergy. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of FirstEnergy stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long FirstEnergy may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about FirstEnergy and may potentially protect profits, hedge FirstEnergy with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
37.0623
Short Percent
0.0247
Short Ratio
3.45
Shares Short Prior Month
13.3 M
50 Day MA
37.234

FirstEnergy Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to FirstEnergy's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in FirstEnergy. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding FirstEnergy can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around FirstEnergy. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of FirstEnergy's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about FirstEnergy.

FirstEnergy Implied Volatility

    
  16.75  
FirstEnergy's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of FirstEnergy stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if FirstEnergy's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that FirstEnergy stock will not fluctuate a lot when FirstEnergy's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in FirstEnergy. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in FirstEnergy to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying FirstEnergy because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

FirstEnergy after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 38.63  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current FirstEnergy contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that FirstEnergy will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.05% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With FirstEnergy trading at USD 38.62, that is roughly USD 0.4 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating FirstEnergy's daily price movement you should consider acquiring FirstEnergy options at the current volatility level of 16.75%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out FirstEnergy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade FirstEnergy Stock refer to our How to Trade FirstEnergy Stock guide.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FirstEnergy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
37.7939.0040.21
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
37.7038.9140.12
Details
16 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
36.5340.1444.56
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.530.650.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as FirstEnergy. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against FirstEnergy's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, FirstEnergy's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in FirstEnergy.

FirstEnergy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of FirstEnergy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in FirstEnergy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of FirstEnergy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

FirstEnergy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting FirstEnergy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on FirstEnergy's historical news coverage. FirstEnergy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 37.42 and 39.84, respectively. We have considered FirstEnergy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
38.62
38.63
After-hype Price
39.84
Upside
FirstEnergy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of FirstEnergy is based on 3 months time horizon.

FirstEnergy Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as FirstEnergy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading FirstEnergy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with FirstEnergy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
1.21
  0.01 
  0.02 
10 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
38.62
38.63
0.03 
2,420  
Notes

FirstEnergy Hype Timeline

As of March 28, 2024 FirstEnergy is listed for 38.62. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. FirstEnergy is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 38.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.03%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on FirstEnergy is about 630.21%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 38.60. The company generated the yearly revenue of 12.87 B. Reported Net Income was 1.18 B with gross profit of 8.23 B. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out FirstEnergy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade FirstEnergy Stock refer to our How to Trade FirstEnergy Stock guide.

FirstEnergy Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to FirstEnergy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict FirstEnergy's future price movements. Getting to know how FirstEnergy rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how FirstEnergy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

FirstEnergy Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine FirstEnergy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for FirstEnergy using various technical indicators. When you analyze FirstEnergy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About FirstEnergy Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of FirstEnergy stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as FirstEnergy, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of FirstEnergy based on analysis of FirstEnergy hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to FirstEnergy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to FirstEnergy's related companies.
 2021 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.03750.03720.04310.0493
Price To Sales Ratio2.041.921.631.02

Story Coverage note for FirstEnergy

The number of cover stories for FirstEnergy depends on current market conditions and FirstEnergy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that FirstEnergy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about FirstEnergy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

FirstEnergy Short Properties

FirstEnergy's future price predictability will typically decrease when FirstEnergy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of FirstEnergy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential FirstEnergy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FirstEnergy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding574 M
Cash And Short Term Investments137 M
When determining whether FirstEnergy is a strong investment it is important to analyze FirstEnergy's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact FirstEnergy's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding FirstEnergy Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out FirstEnergy Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
For information on how to trade FirstEnergy Stock refer to our How to Trade FirstEnergy Stock guide.
Note that the FirstEnergy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FirstEnergy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.

Complementary Tools for FirstEnergy Stock analysis

When running FirstEnergy's price analysis, check to measure FirstEnergy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FirstEnergy is operating at the current time. Most of FirstEnergy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FirstEnergy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FirstEnergy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FirstEnergy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FirstEnergy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FirstEnergy. If investors know FirstEnergy will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FirstEnergy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.196
Dividend Share
1.58
Earnings Share
1.96
Revenue Per Share
22.138
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.01)
The market value of FirstEnergy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FirstEnergy that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FirstEnergy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FirstEnergy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FirstEnergy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FirstEnergy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FirstEnergy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FirstEnergy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FirstEnergy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.