Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock Price Prediction

EC Stock  USD 11.33  0.35  3.19%   
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Ecopetrol's share price is approaching 31 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Ecopetrol, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

31

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Ecopetrol SA ADR stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Ecopetrol shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Ecopetrol's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Ecopetrol and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Ecopetrol's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Ecopetrol SA ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Ecopetrol's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.56
EPS Estimate Current Year
2.05
EPS Estimate Next Year
1.83
Wall Street Target Price
13.42
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Ecopetrol based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Ecopetrol stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Ecopetrol over a specific investment horizon. Using Ecopetrol hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Ecopetrol SA ADR from the perspective of Ecopetrol response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Ecopetrol using Ecopetrol's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Ecopetrol using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Ecopetrol's stock price.

Ecopetrol Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Ecopetrol's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Ecopetrol. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Ecopetrol stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Ecopetrol may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Ecopetrol and may potentially protect profits, hedge Ecopetrol with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
11.6214
Short Percent
0.0253
Short Ratio
6.21
Shares Short Prior Month
10.7 M
50 Day MA
11.4766

Ecopetrol SA ADR Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Ecopetrol's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Ecopetrol. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Ecopetrol can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Ecopetrol SA ADR. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Ecopetrol's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Ecopetrol.

Ecopetrol Implied Volatility

    
  55.27  
Ecopetrol's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Ecopetrol SA ADR stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Ecopetrol's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Ecopetrol stock will not fluctuate a lot when Ecopetrol's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Ecopetrol. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Ecopetrol to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Ecopetrol because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Ecopetrol after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 11.32  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Ecopetrol Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ecopetrol's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.6112.1813.75
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
10.1811.7513.33
Details
12 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
11.7712.9314.35
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.350.500.60
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Ecopetrol. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Ecopetrol's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Ecopetrol's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Ecopetrol SA ADR.

Ecopetrol After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Ecopetrol at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Ecopetrol or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Ecopetrol, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Ecopetrol Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Ecopetrol's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Ecopetrol's historical news coverage. Ecopetrol's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.75 and 12.89, respectively. We have considered Ecopetrol's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
11.33
11.32
After-hype Price
12.89
Upside
Ecopetrol is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Ecopetrol SA ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Ecopetrol Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Ecopetrol is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Ecopetrol backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Ecopetrol, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.07 
1.63
  0.01 
  0.01 
10 Events / Month
5 Events / Month
In about 10 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
11.33
11.32
0.09 
1,482  
Notes

Ecopetrol Hype Timeline

As of March 28, 2024 Ecopetrol SA ADR is listed for 11.33. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.01. Ecopetrol is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 11.32. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.09%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at -0.07%. The volatility of related hype on Ecopetrol is about 1967.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.32. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.23. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Ecopetrol SA ADR has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.3. The entity last dividend was issued on the 19th of December 2023. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days.
Check out Ecopetrol Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Ecopetrol Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Ecopetrol's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Ecopetrol's future price movements. Getting to know how Ecopetrol rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Ecopetrol may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Ecopetrol Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Ecopetrol price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Ecopetrol using various technical indicators. When you analyze Ecopetrol charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Ecopetrol Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Ecopetrol stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Ecopetrol SA ADR, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Ecopetrol based on analysis of Ecopetrol hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Ecopetrol's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Ecopetrol's related companies.
 2022 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.130.0029350.002788
Price To Sales Ratio0.6515.4216.19

Story Coverage note for Ecopetrol

The number of cover stories for Ecopetrol depends on current market conditions and Ecopetrol's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Ecopetrol is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Ecopetrol's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Ecopetrol Short Properties

Ecopetrol's future price predictability will typically decrease when Ecopetrol's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Ecopetrol SA ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Ecopetrol's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ecopetrol's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding2.1 B
Cash And Short Term Investments14.2 T
When determining whether Ecopetrol SA ADR offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Ecopetrol's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Ecopetrol Sa Adr Stock:
Check out Ecopetrol Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Ecopetrol SA ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Ecopetrol's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..

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When running Ecopetrol's price analysis, check to measure Ecopetrol's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ecopetrol is operating at the current time. Most of Ecopetrol's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ecopetrol's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ecopetrol's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ecopetrol to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Ecopetrol's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ecopetrol. If investors know Ecopetrol will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ecopetrol listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
(0.38)
Earnings Share
2.46
Revenue Per Share
34.8 K
Quarterly Revenue Growth
(0.12)
Return On Assets
0.0881
The market value of Ecopetrol SA ADR is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ecopetrol that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ecopetrol's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ecopetrol's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ecopetrol's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ecopetrol's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ecopetrol's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ecopetrol is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ecopetrol's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.