Brinker International Stock Price Prediction
| EAT Stock | USD 45.30 1.23 2.79% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
45
Oversold | Overbought |
Brinker International stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Brinker International shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Brinker International's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Brinker International and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Brinker International's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Brinker International, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Brinker International's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.516 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.13 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.67 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.06 | Wall Street Target Price 47.21 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Brinker International based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Brinker stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Brinker International over a specific investment horizon. Using Brinker International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Brinker International from the perspective of Brinker International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Brinker International using Brinker International's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Brinker using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Brinker International's stock price.
Brinker International Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Brinker International's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Brinker. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Brinker International stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Brinker International may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Brinker International and may potentially protect profits, hedge Brinker International with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 38.9589 | Short Percent 0.237 | Short Ratio 4.93 | Shares Short Prior Month 6.1 M | 50 Day MA 46.7406 |
Brinker International Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Brinker International's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Brinker. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Brinker can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Brinker International. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Brinker International's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Brinker International.
Brinker International Implied Volatility | 97.56 |
Brinker International's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Brinker International stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Brinker International's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Brinker International stock will not fluctuate a lot when Brinker International's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Brinker International. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Brinker International to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Brinker because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Brinker International after-hype prediction price | USD 45.38 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Brinker contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Brinker International will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 6.1% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Brinker International trading at USD 45.3, that is roughly USD 2.76 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Brinker International's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Brinker International options at the current volatility level of 97.56%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Brinker |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Brinker International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Brinker International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Brinker International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Brinker International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Brinker International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Brinker International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Brinker International's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Brinker International's historical news coverage. Brinker International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 43.13 and 47.63, respectively. We have considered Brinker International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Brinker International is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Brinker International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Brinker International Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Brinker International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Brinker International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Brinker International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.25 | 0.08 | 0.12 | 11 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
45.30 | 45.38 | 0.18 |
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Brinker International Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Brinker International is traded for 45.30. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.08, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.12. Brinker is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 45.38 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 0.18%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Brinker International is about 420.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 45.18. The company reported the last year's revenue of 4.13 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 102.6 M with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 500.1 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Brinker International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Brinker International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Brinker International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Brinker International's future price movements. Getting to know how Brinker International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Brinker International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DENN | Dennys Corp | (0.06) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 2.59 | (2.93) | 9.31 | |
| BLMN | Bloomin Brands | 0.12 | 11 per month | 1.81 | 0.05 | 2.97 | (3.51) | 8.47 | |
| CHUY | Chuys Holdings | (0.44) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.53 | (2.53) | 8.42 | |
| JACK | Jack In The | (0.61) | 12 per month | 0.00 | (0.22) | 2.39 | (3.55) | 8.33 | |
| RUTH | Ruths Hospitality Group | (0.03) | 9 per month | 0.94 | 0.09 | 1.75 | (2.63) | 34.37 | |
| DIN | Dine Brands Global | (0.13) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.95 | (3.53) | 8.57 | |
| BJRI | BJs Restaurants | 0.95 | 10 per month | 2.35 | (0) | 4.22 | (3.89) | 12.17 | |
| FRGI | Fiesta Restaurant Group | (0.02) | 5 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.60 | (0.35) | 7.09 | |
| TXRH | Texas Roadhouse | (5.29) | 12 per month | 0.50 | 0.19 | 2.60 | (1.28) | 13.22 | |
| PZZA | Papa Johns International | 0.16 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 2.62 | (3.22) | 7.95 |
Brinker International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Brinker price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Brinker using various technical indicators. When you analyze Brinker charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Brinker International Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Brinker International stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Brinker International, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Brinker International based on analysis of Brinker International hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Brinker International's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Brinker International's related companies. | 2015 | 2020 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0639 | 3.76E-4 | 5.33E-4 | 5.06E-4 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.29 | 0.39 | 0.84 | 1.05 |
Story Coverage note for Brinker International
The number of cover stories for Brinker International depends on current market conditions and Brinker International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Brinker International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Brinker International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Brinker International Short Properties
Brinker International's future price predictability will typically decrease when Brinker International's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Brinker International often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Brinker International's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Brinker International's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 45 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | -1.1 B |
Check out Brinker International Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Brinker Stock please use our How to Invest in Brinker International guide.Note that the Brinker International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Brinker International's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.
Complementary Tools for Brinker Stock analysis
When running Brinker International's price analysis, check to measure Brinker International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Brinker International is operating at the current time. Most of Brinker International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Brinker International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Brinker International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Brinker International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Brinker International's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Brinker International. If investors know Brinker will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Brinker International listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.516 | Earnings Share 3.42 | Revenue Per Share 95.831 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.054 | Return On Assets 0.0591 |
The market value of Brinker International is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Brinker that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Brinker International's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Brinker International's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Brinker International's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Brinker International's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Brinker International's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Brinker International is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Brinker International's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.