Discover Financial Services Stock Price Prediction
| DFS Stock | USD 124.27 4.38 3.65% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
54
Oversold | Overbought |
Discover Financial stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Discover Financial shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Discover Financial's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Discover Financial and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Discover Financial's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Discover Financial Services, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Discover Financial's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 3.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 11 | EPS Estimate Next Year 13.15 | Wall Street Target Price 133.31 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Discover Financial based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Discover stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Discover Financial over a specific investment horizon. Using Discover Financial hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Discover Financial Services from the perspective of Discover Financial response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Discover Financial using Discover Financial's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Discover using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Discover Financial's stock price.
Discover Financial Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Discover Financial's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Discover. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Discover Financial stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Discover Financial may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Discover Financial and may potentially protect profits, hedge Discover Financial with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 103.4645 | Short Percent 0.013 | Short Ratio 1.66 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.8 M | 50 Day MA 121.1656 |
Discover Financial Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Discover Financial's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Discover. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Discover can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Discover Financial Services. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Discover Financial's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Discover Financial.
Discover Financial Implied Volatility | 51.8 |
Discover Financial's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Discover Financial Services stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Discover Financial's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Discover Financial stock will not fluctuate a lot when Discover Financial's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Discover Financial. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Discover Financial to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Discover because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Discover Financial after-hype prediction price | USD 124.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Discover contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Discover Financial Services will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.24% per day over the life of the 2024-04-19 option contract. With Discover Financial trading at USD 124.27, that is roughly USD 4.02 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Discover Financial's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Discover Financial Services options at the current volatility level of 51.8%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Discover |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Discover Financial's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Discover Financial After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Discover Financial at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Discover Financial or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Discover Financial, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Discover Financial Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Discover Financial's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Discover Financial's historical news coverage. Discover Financial's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 121.86 and 126.20, respectively. We have considered Discover Financial's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Discover Financial is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Discover Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Discover Financial Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Discover Financial is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Discover Financial backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Discover Financial, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.39 | 2.17 | 0.24 | 0.22 | 11 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
124.27 | 124.03 | 0.19 |
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Discover Financial Hype Timeline
On the 19th of April Discover Financial is traded for 124.27. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.24, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. Discover is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 124.03. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.19%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.39%. The volatility of related hype on Discover Financial is about 389.82%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 124.05. About 89.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Discover Financial was currently reported as 58.88. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.79. Discover Financial last dividend was issued on the 22nd of May 2024. The entity had 1:5 split on the January 31, 2014. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Discover Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Discover Financial Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Discover Financial's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Discover Financial's future price movements. Getting to know how Discover Financial's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Discover Financial may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| V | Visa Class A | (0.91) | 9 per month | 0.93 | (0.03) | 1.27 | (1.40) | 4.97 | |
| PYPL | PayPal Holdings | (0.79) | 7 per month | 2.73 | 0.02 | 3.67 | (3.16) | 17.25 | |
| MA | Mastercard | 0.03 | 9 per month | 0.97 | 0.03 | 1.57 | (1.43) | 6.10 |
Discover Financial Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Discover price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Discover using various technical indicators. When you analyze Discover charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Discover Financial Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Discover Financial stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Discover Financial Services, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Discover Financial based on analysis of Discover Financial hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Discover Financial's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Discover Financial's related companies. | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0259 | 0.0263 | 0.0323 | Price To Sales Ratio | 2.03 | 1.39 | 1.32 |
Story Coverage note for Discover Financial
The number of cover stories for Discover Financial depends on current market conditions and Discover Financial's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Discover Financial is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Discover Financial's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Discover Financial Short Properties
Discover Financial's future price predictability will typically decrease when Discover Financial's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Discover Financial Services often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Discover Financial's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Discover Financial's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 254 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 13.8 B |
Check out Discover Financial Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. Note that the Discover Financial information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Discover Financial's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the ETF Categories module to list of ETF categories grouped based on various criteria, such as the investment strategy or type of investments.
Complementary Tools for Discover Stock analysis
When running Discover Financial's price analysis, check to measure Discover Financial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Discover Financial is operating at the current time. Most of Discover Financial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Discover Financial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Discover Financial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Discover Financial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Discover Financial's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Discover Financial. If investors know Discover will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Discover Financial listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.69) | Dividend Share 2.8 | Earnings Share 8.79 | Revenue Per Share 39.45 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.294 |
The market value of Discover Financial is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Discover that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Discover Financial's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Discover Financial's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Discover Financial's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Discover Financial's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Discover Financial's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Discover Financial is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Discover Financial's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.