Delta Air Lines Stock Price Prediction

DAL Stock  USD 47.87  0.56  1.18%   
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of Delta Air's share price is at 59 suggesting that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Delta Air, making its price go up or down.

Oversold Vs Overbought

59

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
Delta Air Lines stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Delta Air shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Delta Air's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Delta Air and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Delta Air's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Delta Air Lines, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Delta Air's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.436
EPS Estimate Next Quarter
0.38
EPS Estimate Current Year
6.46
EPS Estimate Next Year
7.5
Wall Street Target Price
55.24
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Delta Air based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Delta stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Delta Air over a specific investment horizon. Using Delta Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Delta Air Lines from the perspective of Delta Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Delta Air using Delta Air's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Delta using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Delta Air's stock price.

Delta Air Short Interest

A significant increase or decrease in Delta Air's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Delta. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Delta Air stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Delta Air may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Delta Air and may potentially protect profits, hedge Delta Air with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA
40.5233
Short Percent
0.0283
Short Ratio
1.87
Shares Short Prior Month
16.8 M
50 Day MA
41.4238

Delta Air Lines Hype to Price Pattern

Investor biases related to Delta Air's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Delta. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Delta can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Delta Air Lines. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Delta Air's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Delta Air.

Delta Air Implied Volatility

    
  26.02  
Delta Air's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Delta Air Lines stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Delta Air's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Delta Air stock will not fluctuate a lot when Delta Air's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Delta Air. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Delta Air to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Delta because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.

Delta Air after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 48.03  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.

Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Delta contract

Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Delta Air Lines will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 1.63% per day over the life of the 2024-04-05 option contract. With Delta Air trading at USD 47.87, that is roughly USD 0.78 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Delta Air's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Delta Air Lines options at the current volatility level of 26.02%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
  
Check out Delta Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Delta Air's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
46.9248.9951.06
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
47.0949.1751.24
Details
21 Analysts
Consensus
LowTargetHigh
49.0953.9459.87
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.250.350.45
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Delta Air. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Delta Air's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Delta Air's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Delta Air Lines.

Delta Air After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Delta Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Delta Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Delta Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Delta Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Delta Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Delta Air's historical news coverage. Delta Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 45.96 and 50.10, respectively. We have considered Delta Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
47.87
48.03
After-hype Price
50.10
Upside
Delta Air is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Delta Air Lines is based on 3 months time horizon.

Delta Air Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Delta Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Delta Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Delta Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.30 
2.09
  0.15 
  0.22 
8 Events / Month
4 Events / Month
In about 8 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
47.87
48.03
0.33 
418.00  
Notes

Delta Air Hype Timeline

On the 29th of March Delta Air Lines is traded for 47.87. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.15, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.22. Delta is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 48.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price upswing on the next news is projected to be 0.33%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Delta Air is about 281.8%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 47.65. The company reported the last year's revenue of 58.05 B. Total Income to common stockholders was 4.61 B with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 9.68 B. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days.
Check out Delta Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.

Delta Air Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Delta Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Delta Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Delta Air rivals react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Delta Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Delta Air Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Delta price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Delta using various technical indicators. When you analyze Delta charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.

About Delta Air Predictive Indicators

The successful prediction of Delta Air stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Delta Air Lines, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Delta Air based on analysis of Delta Air hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Delta Air's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Delta Air's related companies.
 2021 2023 2024 (projected)
Dividend Yield0.0049790.0057260.00544
Price To Sales Ratio0.830.440.33

Story Coverage note for Delta Air

The number of cover stories for Delta Air depends on current market conditions and Delta Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Delta Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Delta Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Delta Air Short Properties

Delta Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Delta Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Delta Air Lines often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Delta Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Delta Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding643 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.9 B
When determining whether Delta Air Lines is a strong investment it is important to analyze Delta Air's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Delta Air's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Delta Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Delta Air Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.
Note that the Delta Air Lines information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Delta Air's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Price Transformation module to use Price Transformation models to analyze the depth of different equity instruments across global markets.

Complementary Tools for Delta Stock analysis

When running Delta Air's price analysis, check to measure Delta Air's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Delta Air is operating at the current time. Most of Delta Air's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Delta Air's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Delta Air's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Delta Air to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Delta Air's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Delta Air. If investors know Delta will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Delta Air listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth
1.436
Dividend Share
0.3
Earnings Share
7.17
Revenue Per Share
90.842
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.059
The market value of Delta Air Lines is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Delta that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Delta Air's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Delta Air's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Delta Air's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Delta Air's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Delta Air's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Delta Air is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Delta Air's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.