Carpenter Technology Stock Price Prediction
| CRS Stock | USD 80.51 1.60 2.03% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
78
Oversold | Overbought |
Carpenter Technology stock price prediction is an act of determining the future value of Carpenter Technology shares using few different conventional methods such as EPS estimation, analyst consensus, or fundamental intrinsic valuation. The successful prediction of Carpenter Technology's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Carpenter Technology and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Carpenter Technology's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Carpenter Technology, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Carpenter Technology's stock price prediction:Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.8 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.07 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.93 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.78 | Wall Street Target Price 91 |
It is a matter of debate whether stock price prediction based on information in financial news can generate a strong buy or sell signal. We use our internally-built news screening methodology to estimate the value of Carpenter Technology based on different types of headlines from major news networks to social media. The Carpenter stock price prediction module provides an analysis of price elasticity to changes in media outlook on Carpenter Technology over a specific investment horizon. Using Carpenter Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Carpenter Technology from the perspective of Carpenter Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Carpenter Technology using Carpenter Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Carpenter using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Carpenter Technology's stock price.
Carpenter Technology Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Carpenter Technology's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Carpenter. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Carpenter Technology stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall. An investor who is long Carpenter Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Carpenter Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Carpenter Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 65.5819 | Short Percent 0.0307 | Short Ratio 2.78 | Shares Short Prior Month 1.2 M | 50 Day MA 69.5374 |
Carpenter Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Carpenter Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Carpenter. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Carpenter can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Carpenter Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Carpenter Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Carpenter Technology.
Carpenter Technology Implied Volatility | 50.1 |
Carpenter Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Carpenter Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Carpenter Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Carpenter Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Carpenter Technology's options are near their expiration.
This module is based on analyzing investor sentiment around taking a position in Carpenter Technology. This speculative approach is based exclusively on the idea that markets are driven by emotions such as investor fear and greed. The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Carpenter Technology to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Carpenter because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Carpenter Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 78.55 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Carpenter contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Carpenter Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 3.13% per day over the life of the 2024-05-17 option contract. With Carpenter Technology trading at USD 80.51, that is roughly USD 2.52 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Carpenter Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Carpenter Technology options at the current volatility level of 50.1%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Carpenter |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Carpenter Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Carpenter Technology After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Carpenter Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Carpenter Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Carpenter Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Carpenter Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Carpenter Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Carpenter Technology's historical news coverage. Carpenter Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 76.24 and 80.86, respectively. We have considered Carpenter Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Carpenter Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Carpenter Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Carpenter Technology Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Carpenter Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Carpenter Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Carpenter Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.31 | 2.29 | 0.42 | 0.11 | 13 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
80.51 | 78.55 | 0.46 |
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Carpenter Technology Hype Timeline
On the 23rd of April Carpenter Technology is traded for 80.51. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.42, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. Carpenter is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 78.55. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 167.15%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.46%, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.31%. The volatility of related hype on Carpenter Technology is about 656.97%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 80.62. About 94.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Carpenter Technology was currently reported as 29.83. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.59. Carpenter Technology last dividend was issued on the 22nd of April 2024. The entity had 2:1 split on the 16th of November 2007. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next projected press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Carpenter Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Carpenter Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Carpenter Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Carpenter Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Carpenter Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Carpenter Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NWPX | Northwest Pipe | 0.34 | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.06 | 2.81 | (2.53) | 11.81 | |
| IIIN | Insteel Industries | (0.29) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 2.39 | (3.38) | 11.20 | |
| ESAB | ESAB Corp | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.58 | 0.19 | 2.55 | (1.60) | 6.09 | |
| GIFI | Gulf Island Fabrication | 1.04 | 8 per month | 2.69 | 0.15 | 5.43 | (3.84) | 36.84 | |
| CMPO | CompoSecure | (0.09) | 10 per month | 2.04 | 0.08 | 4.28 | (3.45) | 29.13 | |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Co | 0.26 | 8 per month | 2.53 | 0.01 | 4.55 | (3.32) | 13.11 | |
| MLI | Mueller Industries | 1.22 | 8 per month | 1.43 | 0.09 | 3.13 | (2.41) | 7.58 |
Carpenter Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Carpenter price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Carpenter using various technical indicators. When you analyze Carpenter charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Carpenter Technology Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Carpenter Technology stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Carpenter Technology, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Carpenter Technology based on analysis of Carpenter Technology hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Carpenter Technology's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Carpenter Technology's related companies. | 2021 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.029 | 0.0311 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.74 | 0.73 |
Story Coverage note for Carpenter Technology
The number of cover stories for Carpenter Technology depends on current market conditions and Carpenter Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Carpenter Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Carpenter Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Carpenter Technology Short Properties
Carpenter Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Carpenter Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Carpenter Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Carpenter Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Carpenter Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.5 M |
Check out Carpenter Technology Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. For more information on how to buy Carpenter Stock please use our How to Invest in Carpenter Technology guide.You can also try the USA ETFs module to find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) in USA.
Complementary Tools for Carpenter Stock analysis
When running Carpenter Technology's price analysis, check to measure Carpenter Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Carpenter Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Carpenter Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Carpenter Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Carpenter Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Carpenter Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk | |
| Headlines Timeline Stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity | |
| Analyst Advice Analyst recommendations and target price estimates broken down by several categories | |
| Economic Indicators Top statistical indicators that provide insights into how an economy is performing | |
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| Premium Stories Follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope | |
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Is Carpenter Technology's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Carpenter Technology. If investors know Carpenter will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Carpenter Technology listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 5.8 | Dividend Share 0.8 | Earnings Share 2.89 | Revenue Per Share 55.43 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.078 |
The market value of Carpenter Technology is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Carpenter that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Carpenter Technology's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Carpenter Technology's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Carpenter Technology's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Carpenter Technology's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Carpenter Technology's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Carpenter Technology is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Carpenter Technology's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.